India accounts for almost 88 lakh of the more than 5 crore global cases of COVID-19. (File)
Estimating a timeline for the decline of COVID-19 in India, medical experts told NDTV that India could hope to see a "curb in the spread of coronavirus in early 2021", but cautioned that "returning to the pre-Covid era will take a long time".
These were among the many key revelations made by three of India's eminent medical experts in an exclusive interview on the road to recovery from the coronavirus pandemic that has forced nations across the world to adopt economy-hurting lockdowns.
The experts include AIIMS' Director Dr Randeep Guleria, Dr Gagandeep Kang, who is a vaccine scientist, the former Director of Translational Health Sciences and Technology Institute and the first Indian woman scientist to be elected Fellow of the Royal Society in London, and Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, who is an epidemiologist and a vaccinologist.
They discussed the strengths and weaknesses of India's healthcare system, key obstacles in the fight against coronavirus and the way forward as more than 88 lakh people in the country have contracted COVID-19 and 1.3 lakh have died of it since January.
Dr Kang said that India already "has a handle on mortality" and anticipated to see "a curb in the spread of the virus, beginning of 2021".
"We may have two phases where we will see the pandemic is over," Dr Guleria suggested. He, however, maintained a cautionary tone, stating that the coronavirus "pandemic is not over" yet, and added that "returning to the pre-Covid era will take a long time".
Clarifying his earlier claim on a vaccine being made "available to common people only in 2022", Dr Guleria said he referred to it specifically in terms of "when it will be available off the shelf".
Dr Guleria added that "anybody who wants to get vaccinated will be able to do so by the end of 2020 or early next year". He asserted that criteria for "priority in vaccination has to be to decrease mortality and the spread of infection among high-risk groups and COVID warriors".
He cited concerns regarding vaccine distribution, maintenance of the cold chain and availability of syringes as challenges India faces in inoculating its 1.3 billion-strong population.
India is looking at multiple vaccine candidates to ensure it has enough doses, and a vaccination drive is likely to start as soon as December - a year since the first outbreak in China's Wuhan.
COVID-19 has since infected almost 5.4 crore people globally, at least 13 lakh of whom have died. The highly infectious virus has pushed researchers to develop an effective vaccine in record time.
Speaking on safety concerns involved in expediting vaccine development and large-scale production, Dr Kang said "a vaccine made in less than a year has never happened before". She added that there was "no compromise on safety... common side effects will be picked up in vaccine trials".
The key to avert future pandemics, however, lies in increasing expenditure on public health systems, promises on which "do not translate into action" in India, said Dr Lahariya, an expert on policy and health systems.
He gave the example of countries such as Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam which have successfully contained the spread of the novel coronavirus, and underlined the crucial role of community participation, as seen in Dharavi.
AIIMS Director Dr Guleria also laid emphasis on the need for governments and policy makers to tackle air pollution. "For economic growth, we have compromised on health and the environment," he said.
The three experts have co-authored "Till We Win: India's Fight Against The COVID-19 Pandemic" - a book offering insights into India's definitive treatments to tackle the virus, accompanied with a roadmap to transform public health with a vision to prevent future pandemics.
Their book is scheduled to release on November 23, 2020.