'Mahila', Middle-Class Voters Pivot From AAP, Strengthen BJP's Hand

The 'Modi, mahila (women), middle-class' mantra paved the way for the Bharatiya Janata Party's comeback in Delhi, experts told NDTV as votes were counted for the 2025 Assembly election.

Leading the BJP's charge was Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who fiercely targeted Mr Kejriwal and the AAP in rallies across the national capital, slamming his rivals for "spending on advertisements rather than infrastructure" and playing up the tax rebate for the middle-class and women-centric poll promises.

And now, spurned, it appears, by women and a large chunk of Delhi's middle-class residents, and with no answer this time to Prime Minister Modi's continuing pull among voters, Arvind Kejriwal's AAP is on the edge of a big defeat; at 1.30pm the BJP was ahead in 47 seats and the AAP in only 23.

And, in the biggest shock of them all, Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia lost their re-election bids; Mr Kejriwal from the New Delhi seat he has held since 2013 and Mr Sisodia from Jungpura.

To underline the scale of its impending defeat, the AAP dominated the 2020 election, winning 62 of Delhi's 70 seats. It also thumped all comers in 2015, claiming 67 for a near-clean sweep.

This time, though, the BJP seems to have the AAP and Mr Kejriwal's measure, with a range of factors - from the 'sheeshmahal' controversy to the alleged liqour excise policy scam - credited with ending the former anti-corruption activist's decade-long control over the national capital.

READ | 'Sheeshmahal' To Liquor Case: Factors Behind AAP's Delhi Loss

But perhaps the biggest factors behind the BJP's (all but certain) win were the middle-class and women voters, both of which were seen as strong supporters of Arvind Kejriwal and his AAP.

'Mahila' Voters

Women were recognised as a potential key vote base early in the build-up to this election, with the BJP, AAP, and Congress all making provisions in their manifestos.

More than 46 per cent of Delhi's registered voters - i.e., around 71 lakh - are women.

And, in the days before voting (which was on Wednesday), more women were signing up to vote, and that translated into increased votes, with women voters' numbers rising by nearly two per cent.

Political analysts told NDTV that in the 2020 election the AAP swept nearly 60 per cent of women's votes. The BJP got just 35 per cent. This time it appears the tables have flipped, with women flocking to the saffron party, which made promises including direct cash transfers of Rs 2,500 per month.

READ | AAP, BJP Offer Cash Transfers, Chase 'Women Power' In Delhi Poll

The two also traded other promises, such as free travel on government-run buses. The BJP, though, made a second vow - offering cash assistance particularly to pregnant women also.

READ | AAP's Poll Offer: 1,000 A Month For Delhi Women, 2,100 If It Wins

The AAP made similar promises - Rs 2,100 per month - but this proved ineffective, not least because of delayed implementation, something experts told NDTV was a "strategic mistake".

The budget for these provisions had been cleared last February, but this was never put into practice. Even accounting for potential delays from Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena's office - with whom the AAP has had several run-ins - Mr Kejriwal should have put this into practice, experts said. Had the Lt Governor dithered, the AAP could have still played the victim card.

This meant women voters - once a key vote base for Mr Kejriwal and the AAP, particularly the women middle-class voters - have now switched allegiances.

Middle-Class

The middle-class' jump to the BJP camp comes on the back of that big-ticket announcement in the Union Budget 2025. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a massive hike in the personal income tax rebate ceiling - from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 12 lakh. That meant people with salaries up to Rs 12 lakh (Rs 12.75 lakh including the standard deduction) would pay no tax.

The move was hailed and talked up by BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in the run-up to this election; Mr Modi, addressing a rally in south Delhi, made that point.

Experts also believe the middle-class vote pivoted back to the BJP after the AAP was roiled in corruption scandals, the biggest of which was the liquor policy row, in connection with which both Mr Kejriwal and his right-hand man, Manish Sisodia, were jailed for several months.

The middle-class constitutes around 40 per cent of Delhi's voters, making it one of the largest in any election in the national capital. And it wasn't just the income tax break that helped the BJP pull them to its side. It was also crumbling infrastructure and the annual air quality crisis.

Another key 'pull' for the BJP was the 8th Pay Commission, which recommended a big revision for salaries and pensions of central government employees, a large chunk of whom live in Delhi.

Overall, it appears the 'clean' and 'no corruption' image of Mr Kejriwal has - the result of this election notwithstanding - been dented.