Dera Sacha Sauda head Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh - serving a life term for the murder of his manager in 2002 and another for the murder of a journalist, as well as a 20-year term for the rape - will walk out of jail in Haryana's Rohtak this evening after being granted a furlough of 21 days.
He had earlier been given three emergency (sunrise-to-sunset) paroles to meet his ailing mother and get medical check-ups. This release, however, comes less than two weeks before the Punjab polls, where the BJP (in power in Haryana) is looking to oust the Congress.
Speaking at a party event today, Haryana Chief Minister ML Khattar said the furlough had nothing to do with any election. Both he and the state's Jails Minister, Ranjit Singh Chautala, said the Dera chief had been granted leave in accordance with established protocol.
Dera followers, and particularly those of Ram Rahim Singh, are influential in Punjab's Malwa region, with their votes seen as key in deciding parliamentary and legislative elections.
The Malwa region has 69 constituencies - over half of the Punjab Assembly's 117 seats.
Dera followers - who number in the crores and have been relatively subdued since Rahim Singh was jailed - are widely seen as voting in accordance with diktats from sect leaders.
In 2002 the sect was seen as extending behind-the-scenes support to the Congress.
In 2007 the support was open and the result was spectacular, with the party winning 37 seats to the 29 claimed by the (then) BJP-Akali Dal alliance. However, the Congress failed to win that election after losing in the Doaba and Majha regions.
For the 2012 election, the sect walked a tightrope by supporting candidates instead of political parties. And, in 2017, it backed the BJP-Akal Dal alliance but they were beaten.
This time all major parties - including the Congress, the BJP, and the Akali Dal, as well as the AAP - have been seen with sect leaders in a bid to win over their followers' votes.
Punjab's Malwa region consists of Bathinda, Muktsar, Sangrur, Mansa, Patiala, Barnala, Faridkot, Moga, Ferozepur, Ludhiana and Mohali districts.
Punjab will vote for a new government in a single-phase poll on February 20; Ram Rahim Singh's furlough ends the following day.
The election had originally been scheduled for February 14 but was postponed after political parties requested the Election Commission to factor in Guru Ravidas Jayanti celebrations.
Votes will be counted on March 10.