With the BJP set to breach AAP's fortress, Delhi will be the latest among a handful of opposition-ruled states to turn saffron and also cement the position of the ruling party at the Centre in the region. The BJP is already in power in the states surrounding the national capital, including Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
While the BJP has been ruling in Uttar Pradesh since 2017, it won a decisive mandate in the face of strong headwinds in Haryana - where it had been in power for two terms - last year and wrested power from the Congress in Rajasthan in 2023.
Despite having governments, on its own or in alliance with its partners, in at least 20 states, being out of power in Delhi since 1998 has rankled the BJP. This was exacerbated by its humiliating losses in the national capital in 2015 and 2020, where it managed to win just three and eight of Delhi's 70 seats, respectively, while the AAP swept 67 and 62.
What Worked, What Didn't
The BJP looks set to avenge those defeats by attaining a spectacular victory after running an aggressive campaign in which it successfully demolished AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal's image of being an anti-corruption crusader by painting him as corrupt. This was done by claiming that Mr Kejriwal was directly involved in the alleged liquor policy scam for which he was also arrested and spent five months in jail.
Two other issues that seem to have worked in the BJP's favour were the controversy over the renovation of the Delhi Chief Minister's residence - which the party termed 'Sheeshmahal' (palace of mirrors) - and its commitment of not discontinuing any schemes for the poor in Delhi in addition to its promises of Rs 2,500 a month for women from poor families and subsidised LPG cylinders. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was the face of the BJP's campaign in New Delhi, had earlier termed the AAP's schemes "revdi" (freebies).
The AAP's claims of being hamstrung by a combative Lieutenant Governor (LG) and the ordinance and subsequent law extending the Centre's control of services and the posting of officers in Delhi appeared to have failed to move the voters, who seem to have been swayed by the BJP's contention that a double-engine government would better for them. This was despite voters trusting similar claims by the AAP in 2020.
After giving up the chief minister's chair - which was taken up by his cabinet colleague Atishi - after being released from jail in September last year, Mr Keriwal had also made an emotional appeal and said that he would return to the post only if the people of Delhi gave him a "certificate of honesty". That gambit also appears to have failed.
