Exclusive: 90% Chance Of El Nino In July-August, Normal Monsoon Expected

A 90 per cent probability of El Nino weather pattern developing in July-August has been predicted by the Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, M Ravichandran. In an exclusive interview with NDTV, he said that the monsoon is expected to be normal as forecasted earlier by the weather office.

"There is a 90 per cent probability that El Nino is likely to happen in the July-August period this year. But El Nino is not the only factor that affects the global wind patterns," M Ravichandran said.

He added that other factors such as the Atlantic Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole and Eurasian snow cover could also affect the monsoon. "We expect a normal monsoon as forecasted," Ravichandran said.

El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal.

The warming causes changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the subcontinent. As a result, the monsoon tends to be weaker and less reliable during El Nino years.

Starting 2019, India has already seen four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rains during the monsoon season. According to the Met department, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'.

Earlier this month, amid concerns over possible impact of evolving El Nino conditions on monsoon rains, the Centre had advised states to be prepared for "worst situation" and ensure adequate availability of seeds for kharif sowing season in case of less rainfall.