No Confidence Motion: Should Government Worry? Numbers Explained

The Congress party, as part of the newly formed INDIA opposition alliance, along with Telangana's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), have filed two separate no-confidence motions against the Narendra Modi-led government in Lok Sabha. This move comes amidst the ongoing parliamentary impasse over the ethnic clashes in Manipur that have left over 125 people dead, thousands displaced and new tales of unspeakable horrors each day. The conflict, and the government's inability to end it even after three months of violence, has been a key reason for the continuous logjam in both houses of parliament since the monsoon session began on July 20.

Despite the no-confidence motion by opposition parties being likely to fail the numbers test, they argue that they will win the "battle of perception" by cornering the government on the Manipur issue during the debate. The opposition contends that this strategy will compel the Prime Minister to address the crucial matter in parliament, despite the government's insistence that Union Home Minister Amit Shah will respond to the debate on the Manipur situation.

The Current Numbers

With the majority mark in Lok Sabha at 272, the PM Modi's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is safe with 331 members. The BJP alone has 303. The opposition INDIA alliance has 144 while parties like KCR's BRS, YS Jagan Reddy's YSRCP and Naveen Patnaik's BJD have combined strength of 70.

Understanding the No-Confidence Motion

A no-confidence motion is a parliamentary tool used by the opposition to express its lack of confidence in the government. The ruling party must then prove its majority in the House to maintain confidence. If it loses the majority, the government will fall immediately. The government can remain in power as long as it has the majority in the Lok Sabha.

The Opposition's Weapon

Often used as a strategic tool by the opposition, the no-confidence motion allows them to question the ruling government, highlight their failures, and discuss them in the house. This motion also plays a significant role in uniting the opposition. If the motion is passed in the House, the entire cabinet, including the Prime Minister, must resign.

Lok Sabha's Exclusive Right

As per Article 75 of the Constitution, the Cabinet is collectively accountable to the Lok Sabha. Only the opposition can bring this proposal, and it can be introduced in Lok Sabha only, not in the Rajya Sabha. Any party in parliament can move a no-confidence motion against the government, and the ruling government must prove its majority to stay in power.

The Procedure For A No-Confidence Motion

A no-confidence motion is brought according to the rules of the Lok Sabha. Under rules 198(1) and 198(5) of the Lok Sabha, it can be introduced only after the Speaker has called upon it. The information about bringing it to the House has to be given in writing to the Secretary-General by 10 am. It requires the support of at least 50 members of the House. If the motion is passed, the President fixes one or more days for discussion. The President of India can also ask the government to prove its majority. If the government is unable to do so, the cabinet must resign, or else it will be dismissed.

Impact Of No-Confidence Motions On Previous Governments

The no-confidence motion has historically been used as a form of protest to keep the government accountable. It has been instrumental in toppling governments, especially when coalition governments started to form. From Jawaharlal Nehru, the country's first Prime Minister, to Narendra Modi in 2018, several leaders have faced this proposal. While some survived, others like Morarji Desai, Charan Singh, VP Singh, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee saw their governments fall due to no-confidence motions. The last no-confidence motion faced by the Narendra Modi-led NDA government in 2018 was defeated by 199 votes.