Explained: How India Predicts Weather And How It Can Be Improved

India, at present, depends on satellite data and computer models for weather prediction. The Indian Meteorological Department or IMD uses the INSAT series of satellites and supercomputers.

Forecasters use satellite data around cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapour content that help in rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, and tracking cyclones.

Climate change is making the annual monsoon more difficult to forecast. Researchers at the India Meteorological Department have spent more than a decade fine-tuning a new way to predict when, and how much, rain will fall each year. 

The 'National Monsoon Mission' was set out in 2012 to move the nation over to a system that relies less on historical patterns and more on real-time, on-the-ground data gathering.

The weather agency is now using manned and automatic weather stations, aircraft, ships, weather balloons, ocean buoys and satellites to gather information on atmospheric temperature, pressure humidity, wind speed and direction and sea surface temperatures. The data is then fed into a supercomputer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune.

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology gives out the first long-range monsoon forecast in April and updates the prediction at the end of May. The outlook is then revised every month.

The IMD is also increasingly using Doppler radars to improve efficiency in predictions. The number of Doppler radars has increased from 15 in 2013 to 37 in 2023. The government has said they will add 25 more radars in the next two to three years.

Doppler radars are used to predict rainfall in the immediate vicinity, making predictions more timely and accurate.

India is also set to acquire its fastest supercomputer by next year at an estimated cost of Rs 900 crore. It will be three times faster than the existing supercomputers - Mihir and Prathyush - and will enhance block-level forecasts.

Predicting weather events with a high level of accuracy has become increasingly important in India, one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change. It allows the country to better prepare - from issuing early heat and rain warnings to coordinating power supplies to guiding farmers on how to protect their crops.