Fear of a drought

People are waiting for the rain in Bundelkhand, just a small part of India's grain bowl. The rest is equally parched. If it stays that way, the next harvest will be badly hit.

Former Railway Minister Lalu Yadav has said a drought looms.

"It (rains) is behaving rather erratically. On the map it is no good, if we have a full quota of rain say on a day. It is important to have it spread over time," said Dr M S Swaminathan, Chairman, National Commission on farmers.

Some scientists fear the worst if it doesn't rain enough soon.

"The situation is very serious. In fact, more serious than we perhaps realise but can we call it a drought yet? I will stop just short of calling it that," said Ramesh Chand, Professor, Indian Council for Agricultural Research.

To be sure there is still time - about 2-3 weeks more - to sow the next crop.

The biggest concern right now is that even if the monsoon makes for its earlier deficiencies in the next week or so and there is late sowing of crops, it will push the production cycle of the next crop even further and there is going to be reduction in production either way.

In fact, the probability of rain expected is just 60 per cent and that too is likely to be sporadic and isolated.

Most of India's crop growing area - 80 per cent - is in the north west. The government is working on a contingency plan for farmers in case there's not enough rain.

The effect on the economy could be bigger.