For BJP And Allies, Maharashtra Seat-Sharing Hits A Math Barrier

Seat-sharing talks for the Maharashtra Assembly elections due later this year are yet to officially begin in the ruling coalition, but the tussle for constituencies has already started, sources have told NDTV. The Assembly has 288 seats and when the demands of the constituents are taken into account, the math is not working out for the Mahayuti, which is part of the larger NDA alliance.

The sources said the BJP is looking to contest at least 150 seats, the Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena is aiming for a minimum of 100 while Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar's NCP wants at least 80. Add even the minimum figures together and the number is at least 40 constituencies over the total number in the Assembly, setting the stage for disagreements and protracted negotiations. 

Getting the math right becomes even more important because the coalition is still smarting from the defeat it faced in the state during the Lok Sabha elections, when it managed to win only 17 of the state's 48 seats against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi's 30. While a number of factors played a role in the poor showing, experts said the disagreements over seat-sharing for the polls also played a role.

Sources said Ajit Pawar met Home Minister Amit Shah along with fellow Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP in New Delhi on Thursday and the division of seats figured in the discussion. They said Mr Pawar is under pressure from leaders in his party to not settle for anything less than 80-90 seats, reasoning that it should contest in all 54 constituencies that the undivided NCP won in the 2019 Assembly polls and at least 30 in addition to that.

The undivided NCP, led by Sharad Pawar, had contested over 120 seats in the 2019 elections in an alliance with the Congress. Insiders in the ruling coalition said the Ajit Pawar faction of the party is aware that it is on a sticky wicket given that it managed to win only one Lok Sabha seat against the eight clinched by the Sharad Pawar group. It had lost even the Baramati constituency which was turned into a prestige battle by Ajit Pawar by fielding his wife Sunetra against his cousin and Sharad Pawar's daughter, Supriya Sule. 

Ever since the Lok Sabha results, which were declared last month, there has been speculation that members of Ajit Pawar's party are in touch with Sharad Pawar's faction to return there after the NCP split in July last year. This is adding to the pressure on Ajit Pawar to ensure that the party can field enough candidates so that disgruntlement, and possible switches, can be kept to a minimum. 

After the Lok Sabha results, an article in Organiser, a weekly known to be close to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, had criticised the BJP for contesting the elections in an alliance with Mr  Pawar's NCP and there has been buzz about rift in the Mahayuti ever since. 

While the allies have dismissed any such talk, especially after the coalition managed the numbers well in the Member of Legislative Council (MLC) elections earlier this month, BJP leader and Union Minister Narayan Rane seemed to stir the pot again on Friday.

Asked at a press conference how many seats the BJP would contest in the Assembly polls, he said in jest, "I would want the BJP to field candidates in all 288 seats."