Foreign Media On First No-Confidence Vote In India In 15 Years

BJP is hopeful no-confidence motion will give a chance to expose opposition's weakness

The era of India's coalition politics is back.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 2014 wave of popularity receding, polls show the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party may fall short of a full majority in next year's federal election, prompting the opposition parties to put aside their ideological differences and unite.

A key test of this new alliance will come today when the Modi government faces its first no-confidence vote in parliament, the first one for any government in the centre in 15 years. While the ruling coalition is expected to easily defeat the motion, the outcome will reveal which group has been more successful in pulling smaller and non-aligned parties into its fold.

"What is important is to see how many votes each side gets and which side has more cracks -- the opposition or ruling coalition," said Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based author and political analyst.

The era of India's coalition politics is back.

The general elections due by next year will determine whether PM Modi continues the economic and social reforms he put in place after winning the largest majority in three decades. He introduced a nationwide goods and services tax and banned 86 per cent of India's currency in a bid to stamp out unaccounted wealth. But the GST's chaotic implementation, along with a banking credit crisis and growing discontent in rural areas, are adding to voter concerns.

The Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, has already reached an understanding with other opposition parties for India-wide cooperation, and it's now working with small regional parties to build state-specific coalitions, said Congress leaders familiar with the development. The party is negotiating with regional leaders in up to a dozen states to improve its lowest ever performance at the 2014 election and block BJP from retaining power, said the leaders, who asked not to be identified.

The BJP had forged an alliance with as many as 28 parties in the last general elections

"Coalition politics is the reality and it is there," said PL Punia, a senior Congress member, without giving details. "It's not a straight-jacket formula. Our policy on coalition is a state-wise assessment and a state-wise decision."

The turning point for the country's divided opposition came in May after elections in Karnataka. While the BJP emerged as the single-largest party, it was ousted by a last-minute coalition cobbled together by the Congress and the regional Janata Dal (Secular).

Looking to 2019, it may be difficult for the BJP to repeat its last performance in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where it nearly swept all the seats in 2014, said Harish Ramaswamy, a political analyst and professor of political science at Karnatak University. Modi's electoral standing has reduced because of discontent by farmers and Dalits within the ruling party, Ramaswamy said by phone.

The BJP is likely to lose around 50 seats from these five states, reducing its overall strength from 282 to less than 200 throughout the country, which falls short of a majority in 543-member lower house of parliament, he said.

"As no grouping is getting close to a majority, pre-poll alliances are becoming more inevitable," said Ramaswamy. "The strategy of opposition parties is not to concentrate on their votes, their seats; but to destroy votes of BJP."

BSP chief Mayawati is talking to Congress on alliance matters and she will take the final decision, said Satish Chandra Misra, a senior BSP leader.

The BJP had forged an alliance with as many as 28 parties in the last general elections, even though it got enough seats on its own for a majority. The Congress party, which had tied up with about 10 parties in 2014, has sought to increase its allies this time around.

Congress is working to forge coalitions in states including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Odisha and Jammu and Kashmir, the party leaders said. It is separately in talks with Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati for an alliance in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, they said.

Mayawati is talking to Congress on alliance matters and she will take the final decision, said Satish Chandra Misra, a senior BSP leader.

The general elections due by next year will determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues the economic and social reforms he put in place after winning the largest majority in three decades.

Even as BJP has extended its footprints across 19 of 29 states, maintaining allies has proven difficult. Since March, two key partners -- the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and the People's Democratic Party in Jammu and Kashmir, quit the National Democratic Alliance or NDA. Another ally, Shiv Sena, is showing restiveness. These three parties make up 35 seats.

Still, BJP leaders are hopeful that the no-confidence motion will provide an opportunity to expose the opposition's continued weakness. "We are hopeful that we will get support from parties outside NDA as well," Ananth Kumar, parliamentary affairs minister, told reporters on Wednesday.

Ahead of the vote today, parties like the AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal and Telangana Rashtra Samithi, are keeping their cards close to the chest. These parties account for 68 seats in the lower house.

"The more regional parties you have, the wider will be your net," Jerath said.