BJP's chief ministerial candidate Sarbananda Sonowal says 'everyone wants change in Assam'.
New Delhi:
Of all the five states where elections are being held this month and the next, it is in Assam that the BJP sees its best chance to win big. The party hopes to wrest the state from the Congress by extending its power-packed performance in the national elections two years ago, to the assembly polls being held in two phases.
Based on historical data and current alliances, the BJP and its partners stand a 60 per cent chance of winning Assam.
A minor player in the state for years, the BJP dominated the national election winning seven of Assam's 14 Parliamentary seats in a Narendra Modi wave across the country. The Congress, which has ruled Assam for the last 15 years straight, could win only three.
The BJP's seven seats and 37 per cent vote share were equal to winning 69 of Assam's 126 assembly seats and the party's top state leaders - most of who have been imported from regional parties or the Congress - promise the party will equal that performance to form government along with its allies, the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People's Front.
Key to that performance was a shift in the way Assam's 5 million tea workers voted, and the BJP will strive to retain that support. The party also expects its strategic alliance with AGP and BOPF to help bolster its chances.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah have campaigned aggressively in Assam attacking the Congress over key political issues like Bangadeshi infiltration and corruption.
Congress veteran and three time chief minister Tarun Gogoi is at 81 fighting what is seen as his toughest electoral battle. The Congress had won 78 assembly seats in the last assembly election, which saw the BJP win only five, while its allies the AGP and BOPF had won 10 and 12 seats each.
But in 2014, the Congress' three seats were equal to only 23 assembly seats.
Himanta Biswa Sarma, once seen as Mr Gogoi's successor in the Congress, broke away and walked over to the BJP with his supporters last year.
Mr Gogoi has said he fears a split in anti-BJP votes since the Left parties are contesting about 59 seats separately, and he also has to contend with Badruddin Ajmal, whose All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is expected to take a chunk of the 11 million Muslim vote in Assam, a traditional Congress vote base.
Maulana Ajmal has wagered that no party will be able to form government in Assam without his help. Since the launch of his party in 2005, the cleric has gone from strength to strength. In the last assembly elections, the AIUDF had won 18 seats making it the second largest party after the Congress.
In 2014, the AIUDF won three seats, equal to the Congress.
To be in with a chance at a fourth straight term, the Congress has to win back a substantial portion of the Muslim vote from the AUIDF and tea workers from the BJP.
Assam is voting in two phases. Polling was held in 65 seats on Monday last and the other 61 will vote on next Monday, April 11. Votes will be counted along with four other states on May 19.
Based on historical data and current alliances, the BJP and its partners stand a 60 per cent chance of winning Assam.
A minor player in the state for years, the BJP dominated the national election winning seven of Assam's 14 Parliamentary seats in a Narendra Modi wave across the country. The Congress, which has ruled Assam for the last 15 years straight, could win only three.
The BJP's seven seats and 37 per cent vote share were equal to winning 69 of Assam's 126 assembly seats and the party's top state leaders - most of who have been imported from regional parties or the Congress - promise the party will equal that performance to form government along with its allies, the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People's Front.
Key to that performance was a shift in the way Assam's 5 million tea workers voted, and the BJP will strive to retain that support. The party also expects its strategic alliance with AGP and BOPF to help bolster its chances.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah have campaigned aggressively in Assam attacking the Congress over key political issues like Bangadeshi infiltration and corruption.
Congress veteran and three time chief minister Tarun Gogoi is at 81 fighting what is seen as his toughest electoral battle. The Congress had won 78 assembly seats in the last assembly election, which saw the BJP win only five, while its allies the AGP and BOPF had won 10 and 12 seats each.
But in 2014, the Congress' three seats were equal to only 23 assembly seats.
Himanta Biswa Sarma, once seen as Mr Gogoi's successor in the Congress, broke away and walked over to the BJP with his supporters last year.
Mr Gogoi has said he fears a split in anti-BJP votes since the Left parties are contesting about 59 seats separately, and he also has to contend with Badruddin Ajmal, whose All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is expected to take a chunk of the 11 million Muslim vote in Assam, a traditional Congress vote base.
Maulana Ajmal has wagered that no party will be able to form government in Assam without his help. Since the launch of his party in 2005, the cleric has gone from strength to strength. In the last assembly elections, the AIUDF had won 18 seats making it the second largest party after the Congress.
In 2014, the AIUDF won three seats, equal to the Congress.
To be in with a chance at a fourth straight term, the Congress has to win back a substantial portion of the Muslim vote from the AUIDF and tea workers from the BJP.
Assam is voting in two phases. Polling was held in 65 seats on Monday last and the other 61 will vote on next Monday, April 11. Votes will be counted along with four other states on May 19.
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