Dark rain clouds are seen over India Gate in New Delhi. (AFP image)
A "near normal" summer Monsoon is what the India Meteorological Department predicts for 2009. In election time this should be very comforting news for the government as an adverse Monsoon forecast makes commodity prices soar.
Using its old statistical model and a spanking new computerized model, the India Meteorological Department is confident that the country as a whole will get anything between 84 and 94 centimeters of rainfall -- but hints it will be closer to the lower end.
A more refined region wise forecast is expected later in the season and a special forecast for the crucial sowing month of July will also be made. The country as a whole receives about 89 centimeters of rainfall during the summer monsoon period.
But what does it really mean for you and me in these times of an economic downturn? Possible relief and a feel good factor if the forecast holds true.
Economic impact of near-normal Monsoon
* Normal Monsoon is critical to growth, will help counter slowest economic growth in 6 years
* India's 235 million farmers represent about a fifth of its economy
* Good rains hold the key to a higher agri output, this will help boost rural demand and in turn the economy
* Adequate rainfall will help sustain the 4.3% average growth in agricultural output
* Vital for key crops such as sugarcane and rice and for overall rural activity
* Good monsoon rains will raise sugar output which is set to halve this year
* Agricultural output above 3% is critical to realize GDP growth between 6- 6.5%
* Monsoons are a key driver of rural income, which is keeping demand alive for various goods and services even during the economic slowdown.
There is, however, a word of caution. In the past, the Meteorological Department has never ever been able to forecast an adverse Monsoon event. Predicting a "near normal" Monsoon is easy since more often than not the Monsoon will always be normal.
The challenge really lies in giving an advance warning of an impending drought.