Haryana Assembly Elections: Will Regional Parties Be Kingmakers?

Politics ahead of the October 1 Haryana election is getting interesting. A five-cornered contest is shaping up this time. The BJP, after its break-up with Dushyant Chautala's JJP (Jannayak Janta Party), plans to ally with smaller parties while the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are going solo. The INLD (Indian National Lok Dal) has allied with BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) and on August 27, JJP declared its partnership with Chandrashekhar Azad's ASP-KR (Azad Samaj Party-Kanshi Ram).

As the BJP and Congress, the two major political forces in the state, get battle-ready, banking largely on the OBC (Other Backward Class) and Jat vote banks, the Scheduled Castes (SCs), who comprise around 20% of the state's population (per the 2011 Census), could be the deciding factor in the polls this time.

With 10 years of anti-incumbency in play, Haryana may vote differently. When it comes to assembly elections, the local issues take priority.

Despite winning all 10 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 national election, the BJP could win only 40 out of 90 seats in the assembly elections that year, falling short of the majority mark and polling only 36.5 per cent votes. The voters sent a mixed signal in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; BJP kept five out of 10 Lok Sabha seats with 46.1 per cent votes, while the Congress took the remaining five and got 43.7% votes. The BJP's vote share declined by 12% from 58% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while Congress added 15.3% votes to its 28.4% votes in 2019. This trend reflects the prevailing mood in Haryana.

As a solution, the BJP is looking to drop half its sitting MLAs, including ministers, to fight anti-incumbency. The party may choose the grandchildren of four past chief ministers, including Haryana's three Lals (Bhajan, Bansi, and Devi), along with the sons and daughters of senior leaders. The party is also planning to field sportspersons.

Why the importance?

The BJP is also keen to strike an alliance with small regional parties in Haryana. There are reports that the BJP may have seat arrangements with Gopal Kanda's Haryana Lokhit Party and Venod Sharma's Haryana Jan Chetna Party. Kanda is targeting five seats while Sharma is claiming the Ambala City and Kalka assembly seats.

The buzz also is that Jayant Chaudhury's RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal) will contest in Haryana. With a base in western Uttar Pradesh's Jat belt, the RLD may look at extending its support base among Jat voters of Haryana in association with the BJP. The BJP too wants to pull in Jat votes, which have drifted away over the past few years because of factors ranging from the farmers' and wrestlers' protests to its break-up with the JJP. The RLD is expected to contest two to four seats as part of its alliance with the BJP.

The Congress is backing the leadership of former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who has managed to consolidate the party in the state, much to the disappointment of his party rivals like Randeep Surjewala and Kumari Selja. The party is confident of doing well.

AAP will contest all 90 Haryana assembly seats independently, breaking from past alliances. Their main focus will be on border constituencies, promoting Arvind Kejriwal's '5 guarantees' such as free electricity, employment, education, healthcare and Rs 1,000 per month to every woman above 18. The party hasn't yet announced its candidates.

AAP had fought the 2019 parliamentary election in alliance with the JJP and the 2024 general elections with the Congress as part of the opposition INDIA alliance.

In the 2019 Haryana election, AAP had fielded candidates in 46 seats. The party hopes to score this time, especially the constituencies neighbouring AAP-ruled Delhi and Punjab.

Battle for existence

In the last assembly elections, the BJP had formed a coalition government with the help of JJP, which had won 10 seats in its poll debut. JJP leader Dushyant Chautala became deputy chief minister. However, the alliance went sour just before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls over seat sharing. Dushyant Chautala has ruled out any truck with the BJP this time sensing public disenchantment over the farm law protests, the Agnipath scheme and wrestlers' anger against the BJP government at the Centre and the state.

The JJP, in its new alliance, will contest 70 out of 90 seats, leaving 20 for the Azad Samaj Party. For JJP, it's an existential battle, and the need to remain a potent force in Haryana politics. Since ending its alliance with the BJP earlier this year, the JJP has seen setbacks. Seven of its 10 MLAs have quit, with one joining the Congress. The three MLAs left in the party include Dushyant Chautala and his mother Naina Chautala.

The JJP-ASP alliance has its eye on the potentially formidable caste combination of the JJP's Jat support base and the ASP's expected Dalit backing.

The INLD, JJP's parent party, has already aligned with Mayawati-led BSP. The alliance leaders have decided to project INLD leader and only MLA Abhay Chautala (Dushyant's uncle) as its chief ministerial face.

In the 2024 parliamentary elections, the INLD had contested seven seats and had managed 1.84% of the total vote share, while the JJP contested on all 10 seats and got 0.87% of the votes across the state. The upcoming assembly polls are a litmus test for both parties, each led by members of former Deputy PM Devi Lal's clan.

With an unpredictable electorate and watery alliances, the October 4 counting day promises to be a thriller.