Hemant Soren's Disqualification: Here Are 5 Key Options He Has Now

The Governor — following the Election Commission's report after hearings on BJP's plea — will announce the disqualification, sources have told NDTV. This means Mr Soren loses his assembly membership. He and his cabinet will then have to resign. The government can be reconstituted. But can Hemant Soren retake the chief minister's chair immediately? Generally, one doesn't need to be MLA already for that. So, the simple answer is yes. 

There is some grey area. If a legislator is disqualified under the anti-defection law, he cannot be minister until re-elected as MLA. Will that precedent apply here? In Mr Soren's case, the disqualification is not under the anti-defection law. Here, Section 9A of the Representation of People Act applies, for which the key question — does he need to be re-elected first? — hasn't yet been settled by any constitutional court.  

After Mr Soren's seat falls vacant, Election Commission has to hold a bypoll within six months. Mr Soren can recontest and get the seat back. But, if he is unable to be chief minister until then, the JMM-Congress alliance may have to elect someone else to the chair. And Hemant Soren can later return as chief minister. He could've had it worse. Law says an MLA guilty of conflict of interest can even be barred from contesting elections for up to five years, as per experts. Sources say Mr Soren isn't getting that punishment.

Politically as well, it's not such a straight line. Weakened by the turn of events, Hemant Soren may have to placate some factions. Already there were allegations that the BJP is trying to topple the government, after three Congress legislators were caught with Rs 50 lakh cash in Bengal. The BJP has denied those allegations. Those MLAs have said they were in Kolkata to buy saris. But a lot has been read between the lines, particularly with the BJP's recent return to power in Maharashtra after a coup in the Shiv Sena.

While Hemant Soren works out his individual troubles, the JMM-Congress may have to prove majority in the House. Among the 81 elected members of the assembly, the JMM (30), Congress (18) and RJD (1) have a majority with 49, plus support from some others. The BJP is main Opposition with 26 members. But the MLAs-with-cash fiasco in Bengal shows the math may not be as simple as it looks on paper. The BJP is demanding mid-term polls "on moral grounds". But minister and Congress leader Alamgir Alam has ruled out any threat to the government: "Hemant Soren continues to be our leader."