How Haryana, J&K Results Can Affect Congress, INDIA Bloc

The shock results for the Congress in in Haryana -- an election it was expected to win comfortably -- is likely to cast its shadow on another important election due next month in Maharashtra and Jharkhand -- states that the opposition INDIA bloc has to retain to keep up the momentum it gained from the Lok Sabha polls. The party's performance in Jammu, where it was expected to go toe-to-toe with the BJP, has also been abysmal. It has won just one seat and its few victories in Kashmir are seen as piggybacking on ally National Conference.

This is also expected to undercut the Congress's newly minted ascendency and weaken its position within the Opposition. And the process has already started with a string of snubs from Maharashtra ally Shiv Sena, and Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi  Party, The latter has declined a seat-share request for by-polls to 10 Uttar Pradesh Assembly seats later this year. An editorial in Sena mouthpiece Saamana spoke of the Congress's ability to "turn a winning innings into a defeat".

The Congress's score in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year - 99 seats, up from 52 in 2019 -- had earned it the position of the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, giving the INDIA bloc a voice and a new heft in parliament.

The results of this round of assembly polls have discredited exit polls, once again. The Congress, anticipating a big win in Haryana, ended up second with 37 seats - an outcome that has been attributed to factionalism within its state unit, complacency after the improved performance in Lok Sabha polls, and faulty strategy that placed all its eggs in the Jat basket.

State leaders of the BJP, which won 48 seats, have said the over-emphasis on Jats has only polarised the state, with the non-Jat voters rallying behind the party.  

The situation is a throwback to the elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in November last year. The Congress, expected to retain Chhattisgarh and win back Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, was left empty-handed.

Madhya Pradesh, in fact, was a copycat situation of Haryana. Said to be under the influence of massive anti-incumbency against the government of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, it had delivered a massive mandate to the BJP.

It had left the Congress in a shaky position in the Opposition block ahead of the Lok Sabha election. The Grand Old Party had to curb its ambition and reinvent itself as a team player.

The results of this phase of state elections can affect its alliance with the National Conference.

While the Kashmir party was expected be the dominant partner in the alliance, given the Congress performance, there has been no talk on whether the party will be part of the government.

There is also concern that the outcome may leave the party in a weaker position in Maharashtra's Maha Vikas Aghadi, where talks are in progress over the knotty subject of seat sharing.

The Saamna editorial has already criticised the Congress for failing to accommodate alliance partners like the AAP or control the "disobedience of local leaders". It even pointed out similar circumstances in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh last year, indicating that a flexible attitude could have changed the outcome.

Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, which ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, refused to share more than two of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats with the Congress, indicated they have been vindicated. "This attitude leads to electoral losses - 'if we feel we're winning, we will not accommodate a regional party but, in states where we're down, regional parties must accommodate us," said Trinamool's Saket Gokhale.