New Delhi:
Mamata Banerjee might have cried wolf once too often and a weary Congress is said to be looking at other options to include in the UPA coalition that it leads. Mamata Banerjee has precipitated crisis after embarrassing crisis for the central government, based entirely on the certitude that her 19 MPs are crucial for the survival of the Congress-led coalition which has a very thin majority in the Lok Sabha.
The Congress is now looking at the 22 MPs of the Samajwadi Party to possibly offset the loss of Mamata's 19 if it comes to a parting of ways. The SP already offers unsolicited support from the outside to the Congress. As does Mayawati's BSP. The Congress will count on that support continuing formally. There has also been speculation about the Congress attempting to woo the SP into government with a Cabinet berth for SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Then there is Lalu Yadav who too has helped the UPA government in sticky situations. (Read:
Will Congress re-boot the UPA with Mulayam Singh Yadav and without Mamata Banerjee?)
The UPA needs to be sure of its numbers as it attempts to push important legislations and reform measures in this Budget Session and later this year. Its math will take into account the following numbers:
Total number of seats in the Lok Sabha: 543
Simple majority at halfway: 272
UPA has at present (Including Trinamool): 276
Numbers that matter:Trinamool: 19
Samajwadi Party: 22
Bahujan Samaj Party: 21
Rashtriya Janata Dal: 4
Possible calculations:UPA without Trinamool: 257
UPA without Trinamool, but with SP: 279
UPA with support from SP and BSP: 300
UPA with support from SP, RJD and BSP: 304
UPA break-up: 276Congress: 206
Trinamool: 19
DMK: 18
Nationalist Congress Party: 9
National Conference: 3
Smaller parties or individuals together: 21