Bhopal: Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the BJP's four-time Chief Minister in Madhya Pradesh, has been cutting a deep furrow through the campaign for next week's election, ready for a fifth stint should the party win. Madhya Pradesh votes on November 17, in which the BJP is hoping for a big comeback, despite the state's history of showing the door to the incumbent.
Convinced that the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is enough to swing the election in its favour, the BJP is carpet-bombing the state with the PM's rallies and roadshows. In a departure from norm in the states it rules, the BJP has not projected Mr Chouhan as its Chief Ministerial candidate either -- raising strong speculation about his being replaced by one of the seven MPs the party has fielded this time.
Many think the jovial, low-profile Chief Minister, who has cultivated the image of mama -- a soft-spoken, approachable maternal uncle -- has upset the party's central leadership.
As evidence, they cite that the Chief Minister was not even asked to lead the BJP's Jan Ashirwad Yatra -- a programme he led in the previous three elections. Five leaders have been put in charge of five yatras being held in the state.
The party's central leadership has been seen to take increasing control of the state leadership -- appointing a string of office bearers in the run-up to the election, point out leaders rooting for the Chief Minister's political rivals.
In September, the BJP announced seven MPs and a national general secretary as candidates in the assembly election. That three of them are union ministers -- Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste -- has led to speculation that Mr Chouhan's days in the top post are numbered.
While Mr Chouhan's personal credentials have been impeccable, what appears to have concerned the BJP Central leaders are the corruption allegations against his government -- a process that pulled down the party's government in Karnataka earlier this year. Plus the less than sterling record of the Shivraj Chouhan government's social welfare programmes has led to public anger, say leaders of the Opposition Congress.
Mr Chouhan -- who, from humble beginnings, worked his way up in the party via the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological mentor of the BJP -- is not taking this lying down.
But instead of any vocal contradiction, the Chief Minister has been focusing doubly hard on the campaign. Over the last weeks and months, he has been continuously on the move, visiting as many towns and villages of the state as possible and employing the line the personal goodwill he has built over the years.
He has ensured that his face remains the most visible -- compared to the Union ministers, who, many say, lost touch with the grassroots with their stint in Delhi.
What has also worked hugely in his favour is the eleventh-hour announcement of the "Laadli behna" scheme under which every woman beneficiary gets Rs 1,250 a month.
Replacing Mr Chouhan could be a tricky job for the BJP. As the party's tallest OBC (Other Backward Classes) leaders in Madhya Pradesh, a hint of his removal could provide the Congress with lethal ammunition, especially in the backdrop of the strident Opposition demand for caste census.
Party insiders point out that only another OBC leader can replace him and there isn't one at the moment who can step into the Chief Minister's overlarge shoes in terms of experience, mass support and personal popularity.
Many feel that the party started showcasing Mr Chouhan and his government's schemes after the Congress changed its stance on the OBCs, demanding a caste census. Madhya Pradesh has more than 50 per cent OBC voters.
The state votes on November 17. The counting of votes will take place on December 3, along with the votes of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.