In Rae Bareli, Congress Faces Threat To Its Last Uttar Pradesh Bastion

A Congress bastion since Independence, the constituency of Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh has been won by former party president Sonia Gandhi five consecutive times. Mrs Gandhi has decided not to contest again and has been elected to the Rajya Sabha from Rajasthan, leaving the bastion vulnerable after another seemingly impregnable fortress, Amethi, had been won by the BJP in 2019.

Since the first Lok Sabha election in 1951-52, which was won by Sonia Gandhi's father-in-law Feroze Gandhi, the Congress has won 17 out of 20 Lok Sabha elections/by-elections in the constituency. The only exceptions were in 1977, when Indira Gandhi lost the election to a Janata Dal candidate after the Emergency was lifted, and the BJP's Ashok Singh won twice in the 1990s.

A member of the Nehru-Gandhi family has always fought the seat, except in 1962 and 1999, and speculation has been rife that Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra may make her electoral debut from there this year. The two other principal parties in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, have never won the seat.

How The Numbers Stack Up

An analysis of the constituency reveals that 90 per cent of the population is Hindu, 5 per cent are Muslims and the remaining are from other religions. At 89 per cent, the electorate is primarily rural and has a significant number (30.4 per cent) of people from the Scheduled Castes. The Scheduled Tribes only account for 0.1 per cent.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha election, Sonia Gandhi won with a vote share of 58.8 per cent, which jumped to 80.5 per cent in the 2006 by-election before falling to 72.2 per cent in 2009. The Congress and Mrs Gandhi managed to retain the constituency in 2014, when Amethi was the only other seat it won in Uttar Pradesh, and 2019 when it was the only seat the party managed to bag in the state. The vote share in those years was 63.8 per cent and 55.8 per cent respectively.

Voter Dynamics

Recent voter turnout trends show an increase, peaking at 56.3 per cent in 2019, indicating heightened political engagement. The seat has witnessed varied political fortunes, with the local assembly segments controlled by the Samajwadi Party and BJP, despite the Congress's parliamentary success. Notably, recent political shifts, such as SP's Manoj Pandey siding with BJP and Congress MLA Aditi Singh's party switch, hint at evolving dynamics.

Key Issues And Campaign Strategies

The upcoming elections in Rae Bareli are poised to focus on local governance, rural development, and sustaining the legacy of its notable representatives. Candidates are expected to leverage these issues, with campaign strategies emphasising direct voter engagement and addressing the constituency's pressing needs.

Looking Ahead

As Rae Bareli gears up for another electoral battle, the focus will be on whether Congress can maintain its stronghold or if the winds of change will introduce a new political era. With the electorate's evolving preferences and the region's historical significance, the upcoming elections are set to be a defining moment for Rae Bareli and its enduring political legacy.