In UP, A Tiny Swing Sets Up Giant Changes: Prannoy Roy's Analysis

A united opposition is enough to make a huge impact on the outcome of the national election in Uttar Pradesh, data has shown. When even a tiny swing is added, the difference is radical, indicates analysis based on data from 2014 elections.

From a possible 41 seats that Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party and Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party could have won in 80-seat Uttar Pradesh had they tied up in 2014, the SP-BSP tally can jump to 54 in the April-May polls. The corresponding BJP figure drops to 23.

A five per cent swing in favour of the BJP can take its tally to 60. The SP-BSP seats will shrink to 18.

If the Congress is added to the mix, the difference widens. A five per cent swing against the BJP can take its numbers to eight per cent and push up the SP-BSP-Congress tally to a staggering 72.

A swing in its favour, with a combined opposition, can give the BJP 46 seats and the alliance 34 seats.

Kept out of the Mayawati-Akhilesh Yadav alliance, the Congress is going solo in most of seats in Uttar Pradesh.

The template of an SP-BSP alliance proved to be a winner in last year's by-elections in the Lok Sabha seats of Phulpur, Gorakhpur and Kairana. The alliance won all three.

The percentage of votes polled by the alliance was 10 per cent more, both in Phulpur and Gorakhpur. Even in Kairana, it scored a 4 per cent upswing.

The success pushed the two parties to set aside their decades-old rivalry and tie up to take on the ruling BJP in the national election.

While it can be argued that a by-election is not always an indicator, the Congress claims that because people take general elections far more seriously, they are more likely to put more thought behind their vote.

"Those who skipped voting because it was a by-election will come out to vote. And those who voted the way they wished, will now vote with greater enthusiasm, in a more open-hearted manner," Congress's Pramod Tiwari told NDTV.