File Photo: People gather near a collapsed house after a major earthquake in Kathmandu in Nepal on April 25, 2015. (Reuters)
If the people of Nepal had been forewarned about the impending temblor, thousands of lives could have been saved. Why is it that scientists can't forecast earthquakes and why is India digging deep to look for answers?
Unfortunately, forecasting earthquakes is very difficult, because the dynamics of the Earth's crust are little understood. And earthquakes are little understood because scientists still can't peer kilometres deep into the Earth. That's why the physics and chemistry of fractures in the Earth remain a mystery. And that's why it's so difficult to predict when rocks will break free.
For all the advances in science, it seems geologists still know a lot more about the moon than they do about the interiors of the planet we live in. "The question of forecasting earthquakes is a very old one, but the basics are not known clearly. We really do not know what actually happens in the immediate vicinity of the focal zone of an earthquake," says Dr. Harsh Gupta, a seismologist and former Secretary at Ministry of Earth Sciences.
In 2013, scientists began a Rs 472 crore global experiment here in India to try and find some answers.
They will dig a five-six kilometre deep bore well in the picturesque but earthquake-prone region of Koyna in Maharashtra. Instruments to decipher the rumblings of the earth will be placed in the bore well. This five-six kilometre borehole will get into the source region of earthquakes in Koyna, where the last earthquake -- with a 3.5 magnitude -- occurred a mere three days ago. "Then we will be able to see the physical, chemical and other changes that take place before, during and after an earthquake. This will help us in developing an earthquake model," says Dr Gupta.
Work on the project is expected to be completed by 2018.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences is also looking for signatures of earthquakes in hot water springs, where scientists have noticed that special gasses like Helium and Radon get released when an earthquake takes place. All of this, in the hope that even a few minutes of forewarning can save thousands of lives.