Kunal Shah, the founder of CRED, has shared a "conjecture" about the relationship between mobile internet speeds and India's declining birth rate. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Mr Shah shared a hypothesis that "data speed in a community is correlated to a decline in birth rate."
The post raised eyebrows, with some agreeing with Mr Shah's hypothesis, while others joked about it.
A user commented, “True. As communities develop and access technology increases, factors like education and career opportunities tend to reduce birth rates.”
Another wrote, “are you saying if i upgrade my wifi speed, my odds of becoming a father reduce? (sic)”
“That's an interesting take!” a comment read. “If faster data leads to smarter choices, maybe it's a win-win for society.”
Is there any validity to this conjecture?
India's fertility rate, measured by the number of children born to a woman, has seen a steady decline over the past decade. The country's fertility rate stands at 2.01 children per woman, slightly below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, according to the National Family Health Survey - 5 (NFHS-5). It has seen a decline from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2 in 2019-21. This decline in birth rates coincides with an overall drop in population growth. From 2014 to 2024, India's population growth rate decreased from 1.27 per cent to 0.89 per cent, while fertility rates dropped from 2.31 to 2.01.
At the same time, internet access in India has surged. According to Statista, internet penetration in the country nearly quadrupled from 13.5 per cent in 2014 to 52.4 per cent in 2024. The availability of 5G services, in particular, has reportedly shown an 80 per cent increase in internet speed over the last decade.
Although no scientific correlation, a study by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), used negative binomial regression to explore the impact of internet usage on women's fertility intentions in China. It found that increased internet use significantly lowers fertility intentions. The frequency of internet usage was inversely related to women's desire to have children, as internet access challenges traditional gender roles.
The research highlighted that women's education level and family economic status also play key roles in fertility intentions. Higher education levels were linked to lower fertility intentions, as women pursue careers, while better family economic status supports higher fertility intentions due to reduced childcare costs.
The study suggests that policymakers should consider internet usage when adjusting fertility policies, as well as focus on optimising family role divisions. Encouraging men to share family responsibilities and alleviating the financial burden of child-rearing could help improve fertility intentions.
However, the study acknowledges limitations, such as the gap between fertility intentions and actual birth behaviour, and the influence of other cultural factors like grandparent involvement in child-rearing.
There have been no formal studies to prove that the rise in internet speeds and availability is inversely proportional to fertility rates. Many experts argue that the decline in birth rates is influenced by a variety of factors, including socio-economic conditions, urbanisation, changing lifestyle choices, and access to education and healthcare.
