Will India Be Impacted By Israel-Hamas War? Political Scientist Ian Bremmer Explains

The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas could trigger wider conflict but India is not likely to be impacted much, political scientist Ian Bremmer says in an exclusive interview with NDTV.

"People are working with India because it is the largest population in the world, it is growing at over 6% a year, and is increasingly developing some pretty extraordinary new technologies," he said.

"If you are Iran, Saudi Arabia or Israel, you have lots of reasons to work with India. And that's not going to change anytime soon," the Eurasia Group president added.

Israel launched relentless aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip after 1,400 citizens were killed in surprise attack by Hamas on October 7. Israel claims that it will continue the attack till Hamas is destroyed.

The world is starkly divided on the issue with the emerging geopolitical faultlines further getting solidified. While the US and the UK have backed Israel to do everything in their power to tackle Hamas, China and Russia have spoken out in favour of the Palestinian people.

China has consistently called for restraint and a ceasefire but has also sharpened its criticism of Israel. Russia has expressed sympathy for the Palestinians while blaming the US and their "failed policy" in the Middle East.

Mr Bremmer said that while faultlines have been solidified and a ground war between Israel and Hamas is inevitable, this conflict may not lead to World War 3.

"A ground war is going to happen. It is a bad idea for many reasons. It will kill enormous number of Palestinian civilians, it will be done in short order or without aid for the Palestinians to evacuate. It will lead to backlash around the world," Mr Bremmer tells NDTV.

He also said that while India is not under a lot of pressure to make strategic decisions, it seems to be taking a similar stand to that of the US.

"India historically has recognised Palestine, but PM Modi immediately came out with sympathy for Netanyahu after the Hamas attack. A very different perspective from what you see from countries in the global south and the middle east," he said.

Elaborating on how India is moving ahead in a new direction under PM Modi, Mr Bremmer said, "PM Modi continues to be seen as someone who wants to be aligned with the West and not the Chinese, not the Russians on geopolitical issues. These are incremental steps, not an alliance, but it's nonetheless a clear direction."

Earlier, Israeli author Yuval Noah Harari had also spoken about the immense leverage that India has in the global order. Speaking to NDTV's Sonia Singh, Mr Harari said, "It (India) is a democracy. It is committed, unlike Russia or China. It is committed to democratic ideals. But it has good relations with many of these countries and also with Iran. So hopefully India will use whatever leverage it has on countries like Iran to de-escalate, first of all, to prevent further escalation of the conflict."

Gaza has been under complete seige since Israel launched retaliatory strikes to the terror attack on October 7. Israel's military campaign has levelled entire city blocks in Gaza, killing 4,137 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Israeli troops are massed on the border with Gaza ahead of an expected ground invasion that officials have pledged will begin "soon".