Explained: Historic No-Trust Vote Against Rajya Sabha Chair, And The Numbers

In a historic first the Congress-led INDIA bloc on Tuesday moved a no-confidence motion against Rajya Sabha Chairperson Jagdeep Dhankhar, alleging partisan functioning of the House under his stewardship. The notice was tabled this morning, triggering the inevitable squabbling and an adjournment.

The filing of the motion followed a raucous 48 hours in Parliament; the Upper and Lower House both saw chaos and disruptions as the BJP and the opposition clashed over the ruling party's allegations - that Congress MP Sonia Gandhi and businessman George Soros are colluding to defame India, adversely impact its economy, and harm national security, a charge the party firmly rubbished. 

At last count 60 opposition MPs - including those from Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool, and the AAP of Arvind Kejriwal, parties that often disagree with the Congress - had backed the move, which is a first in Indian parliamentary history.

The motion was submitted under Article 67(B) of the Constitution, which allows for the removal of the Vice President. But since the VEEP - also Mr Dhankhar - is also the ex officio Rajya Sabha Chair, removing one removes the other.

What Does Article 67(B) Say?

"... a Vice-President may be removed from his office by a resolution of the Council of States passed by a majority of all the then members of the Council and agreed to by the House of the People; but no resolution for the purpose of this clause shall be moved unless at least fourteen days' notice has been given of the intention to move the resolution..."

The first potential stumbling block for the opposition is the 14-day rule.

If the opposition is compelled to submit a 14-day notice, then it means the motion cannot be debated this session, which is scheduled to finish on December 20 - nine days more.

The opposition is aware of this, and the improbability of their motion being carried, but have insisted this is not about the numbers, that it is about sending a message to the ruling party.

This is a symbolic move, sources within the INDIA bloc have told NDTV.

The No-Confidence Motion Numbers

Even if the motion is somehow allowed to be voted on, in politics it comes down, always, to the numbers. And does the opposition have the numbers to carry its motion?

In a nutshell, no.

Article 67(B) requires a simple majority of the Rajya Sabha MPs - i.e., half of those voting + 1 - for it to be passed. As of today, that number is 116 votes.

The Rajya Sabha, at full strength, has 245 members but 14 seats are vacant.

The opposition, for now, has significantly fewer than 116 MPs on its side.

While that could increase, the fact is the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is in control. As of September, it has a six-seat majority, not counting fence-sitters like the YSR Congress Party.

READ | 12 MPs Elected Unopposed To Rajya Sabha, NDA At Majority Mark

The opposition, including those not with the INDIA bloc, have only 85 seats.

The Congress, in an effort to move that goalpost, called out the YSRCP.

"Will Jagan (Mohan Reddy's) party have the courage to support the motion... or will he stay loyal to Modi and Shah while making empty statements?" Manickam Tagore said in a post on X.

The YSRCP has eight MPs in the Rajya Sabha.

Also, possibly, in play are the seven with Odisha's BJD. Party boss and former Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik said, "We are examining it (the motion, and)  will take whatever step is necessary..."

The BJD was thumped by the BJP in the Assembly and federal elections earlier this year, suggesting that whatever understanding there may have been in the past - the BJD, while not a member of the BJP's alliance, often provided issue-based support - does not hold good at this time.

Even with these 15 on its side, the opposition is still short of the 116-mark.

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju underlined that point Tuesday evening, saying, "The NDA has the majority in the Rajya Sabha... the notice must be rejected... it will be rejected."

READ | "NDA Has Majority": Kiren Rijiju On No-Trust Motion Against Jagdeep Dhankhar

And even if, as is wildly unlikely, 31 NDA MPs cross-vote, and the no-confidence motion is passed by the Rajya Sabha, it must then be ratified by the Lok Sabha.

And here the BJP has a brute majority, making it almost certain the motion will fail.

What Led To No-Confidence Motion

The motion was tabled by an INDIA bloc frustrated by what it said was a series of partisan rulings from the Rajya Sabha Chair. The proximate cause, they said, was allowing BJP MPs to record speeches about alleged links between Mrs Gandhi and George Soros despite having rejected 11 earlier notices.

READ | Opposition Moves No-Confidence Vote Against Jagdeep Dhankhar

The opposition ranks also complained of the Chair rejecting multiple notices from their side to discuss other issues, including communal violence in Uttar Pradesh's Sambhal, cyclone damage in Tamil Nadu, Manipur's ethnic violence, and the nearly five-year-long farmers' protest.

After submitting the no-confidence motion, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh slammed the Rajya Sabha Chair for "the extremely partisan manner in which he has been conducting proceedings".

"We try, every day, to have a discussion, but they don't want to have a discussion...that is why they get the House adjourned through any reason," the Congress' Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said.

READ | "Ridiculous, BJP Scared": PGV On Sonia Gandhi-George Soros Links

A number of BJP leaders counter-attacked, including union ministers Giriraj Singh and Kiren Rijiju.

Mr Singh declared it was the Congress playing foul. "Why are they not clarifying George Soros' connection with Sonia Gandhi? They are not letting the House run..." he said. And Mr Rijiju called the Chair "our guide" and accused the Congress and its allies of having "always insulted the Chair".

The BJP's Sonia Gandhi-Soros attack followed a French news report that claims "hidden links" between the OCCRP (Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project) that is partly funded by Mr Soros and partly by a department of the United States government. The party alleged the Congress uses OCCRP reports "targeting" India to criticise the government and Indian interests.

READ | BJP Targets Rahul Gandhi Alleging Soros Link, Congress Cries Foul

Last week the BJP also targeted Rahul Gandhi, calling him a "traitor" and naming him, Mr Soros and "some American agencies" as part of a "triangle trying to destabilise India". The Congress, meanwhile, has just as firmly refuted the claim. "We are patriots..." the party has thundered in response.

With input from agencies

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