Behind Congress's Huge Karnataka Win Against BJP, Big Lingayat Turnaround

The BJP's last-minute move to consolidate its Lingayat support base did not pay off and the Congress made huge gains in the seats dominated by the influential community, trends in the counting of votes indicate.

Lingayats account for 17 per cent of Karnataka's population and can potentially swing outcomes in as many as 78 seats. Out of these 78, the Congress currently leads in 54 seats, while the BJP is ahead in 19. Overall, the Congress is leading in 138 out of 224 seats.  

The trend is significant considering the influential community is known to be a key support base of the BJP. The BJP has tall leaders from the community, including veteran BS Yediyurappa and incumbent Chief Minister Basavaraj S Bommai.

The trends also show that the BJP's score on Lingayat dominated seats dropped by as much as 28 and the Congress gained by 29 as compared to the 2018 elections.

The BJP's poor show in these seats comes despite a desperate attempt to reach out to Lingayats in the run-up to the polls.

The Lingayat community's disenchantment with the BJP may have started in 2021, with the removal of BS Yediyurappa, the state's tallest Lingayat leader, as Chief Minister. Even though the BJP replaced Mr Yediyurappa with Mr Bommai, also a Lingayat, it was not enough to placate the powerful group, the numbers indicate.

In a decision that sparked a huge row, the BJP government in March decided to abolish four per cent reservation for Muslims and reallocate the quota among the influential Lingayats and Vokkaligas. Muslims who were eligible for reservation benefits were categorised under the economically weaker sections category.

The BJP government's move has been challenged in Supreme Court. Arguing in court, the Basavaraj Bommai government had said that it had taken a "conscious decision" to not continue with reservation on the sole basis of religion as it is unconstitutional.

The move was, however, seen as the ruling party's desperate attempt to ensure the support of Lingayats and Vokkaligas ahead of a tough electoral contest.

The state's Lingayat voters became a talking point yet again when Jagadish Shettar, a prominent leader of the community and a former Chief Minister, switched over to the Congress.

Mr Yediyurappa, however, said in the run-up to elections that the BJP has complete support of the Lingayats.

"Hundred per cent Lingayat Community is with us. Congress is trying their level best to create some problems but almost all Lingayats Swamis are with us and told me that they will support BJP," he said.