There are many ways in which the BJP can pull off a win in today's cliffhanger (File)
Highlights
- Option A: BJP gets Congress-JDS lawmakers to vote in its favour
- Option B: BJP persuades opposition MLAs to abstain from voting or resign
- Option C: The party/group that senses defeat forces an adjournment
The BJP's BS Yeddyurappa faces a test of strength in Karnataka today, two days after he took oath under controversial circumstances.
He was given 15 days by Governor Vajubhai Vala to prove his majority, but the Supreme Court, hearing a Congress petition, today drastically slashed that time to just one day.
The
BJP is eight short of the majority mark of 111 (it won 104 seats but one of its lawmakers has been picked as speaker for today). The Congress and the Janata Dal Secular (JDS) of HD Deve Gowda have 115 lawmakers and have gone to extraordinary lengths to prevent defections.
Former Lok Sabha Secretary General Subhash Kashyap says after the governor officially sets the day in motion, the temporary or pro-tem Speaker KG Bopaiah starts administering the oath of office to the new legislators.
At 4 pm, the interim speaker has to call for a trust vote.
The effective strength of the house is 221, so the majority is 111. The BJP, with 103, needs 8 for a majority. The Congress-JDS combine claims 115 votes.
There are many ways in which the BJP can pull off a win in today's cliffhanger. Here are five of those scenarios. In Options 1 and 2, the "turncoat" lawmakers risk being disqualified under the anti-defection law. But in several states, that process of disqualification can drag on for years.
Option 1: The BJP gets Congress-JDS lawmakers to defy the party whip and vote in its favour.
Option 2: The BJP gets opposition lawmakers to abstain from voting, thereby bringing down the effective strength of the house and the majority mark; the majority is decided on those present and voting, not the strength of house, according to Mr Kashyap.
Option 3: The BJP persuades opposition lawmakers to stay away. Their absence will again bring down the effective strength without the risk of punishment.
Option 4: The ruling party persuades opposition legislators to resign. But Mr Kashyap says this is risky as there is no automatic acceptance of resignation in some states. The speaker has to investigate.
Option 5: The party or group that senses defeat disrupts the assembly and forces an adjournment.
If the BJP fails to make it, Mr Yeddyurappa has to resign and the Governor will invite the other group to prove their majority.