In Lok Sabha Race, Can Congress' South Focus Trump BJP's '370 Paar' Push?

With the 2024 Lok Sabha election now weeks away, the Congress' strategy for the southern states - in most of which the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has traditionally struggled - is in focus.

Strong performances here will be crucial if the party wants to do its bit to stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP from claiming an unprecedented third consecutive term.

The southern states - Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, with Puducherry's one seat thrown in for good measure - send 130 MPs to the Lower House.

In 2019 the BJP claimed only 29 of these seats, of which 25 were from Karnataka and the rest from Telangana. The party was routed in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Puducherry.

It wasn't that the Congress did better; it won only 28 seats but it was the spread that is key. It won eight in Tamil Nadu, three in Telangana, 15 in Kerala, and one each in Karnataka and Puducherry.

In this race in South India, the Congress has something the BJP does not - a foothold, with two independent state governments (Karnataka and Telangana) and a ruling alliance (Tamil Nadu). It also has a stronger presence in Kerala and Puducherry, leaving only Andhra Pradesh as a more open field.

The Congress, therefore, is keen to maximise its returns from the southern states, particularly since the general consensus is that the BJP will again dominate heartland and Hindi-speaking states; in 2019 the saffron party won 185 seats from this belt, while its main rival won a shockingly poor five.

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The south, therefore, is where the Congress will most likely make the most gains, in terms of an absolute increase in percentage of seats contested and won.

And the focus is on Karnataka and Telangana, where it is now in power after outstanding performances to defeat the BJP and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi of K Chandrashekar Rao.

Karnataka

Karnataka sends 28 MPs to the Lok Sabha but in 2019 the Congress won only one seat.

That could change in its favour after the party's strong showing in last year's Assembly election, except that historically the state doesn't vote in a general election as it does in a state poll.

The Congress, though, is keen to put up a strong fight and has tapped senior members of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's government as potential candidates. That is the good news.

The bad news is many aren't keen; top leaders, like Public Works Minister Satish Jarkiholi and Sports Minister B Nagendra, have baulked and others, like Women and Child Development Minister Lakshmi Hebbalkar and Social Welfare Minister SC Mahadevappa, have outright refused.

READ | After State Win, Cold Feet In K'taka Congress For National Battle

The same sources also said the party intends to take a strong stance on this; Deputy Chief Minister and Congress trouble-shooter DK Shivakumar has said, "Everyone will have to accept the party high command decisions... even I will have to accept it."

How well the party's 'strong stance' will go down with its state leaders and how many will jump to the BJP, which has made it clear it is willing to accept its rivals' want-away personnel, is unclear.

Telangana

The Congress' statement win in Telangana - 64 of the state's 119 Assembly seats - will drive the party's expectations from the Lok Sabha poll. With a charismatic Chief Minister in charge - Revanth 'Tiger' Reddy - the party will want more than 2019, when it got just three of 17 Lok Sabha seats.

There was talk the party's charge could be led by none other than ex-Congress boss Sonia Gandhi, who is revered in the state and seen by many as the driving force behind its creation in 2014.

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Mr Reddy called on Mrs Gandhi to contest from the state, but that ship has sailed.

She has, instead, gone to the Rajya Sabha as an MP from Rajasthan, leaving Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to contest her Raebareli seat in Uttar Pradesh. Sources have said Ms Gandhi Vadra and Rahul Gandhi were also sounded out, but neither appears likely to be fielded from Telangana.

Ms Gandhi Vadra is set to defend her mother's seat, while Mr Gandhi will return to try and reclaim Amethi from the BJP's Smriti Irani and, simultaneously, defend his Wayanad seat in Kerala.

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The question is - does this leave the Congress without a big name on whom to hang its Telangana campaign? And can the party flip a majority of, if not all, the nine seats now held by the BRS?

Kerala

The BJP scored zero in the 2019 election, but saw a nearly 2.7 per cent increase in its vote share.

The Congress, meanwhile, won 15 - up from seven in 2014 - and had a vote share of nearly 38 per cent. This is good news going into the 2024 election, but there are murmurs that all is not well

For one thing, the CPIM - an INDIA member - has fielded a candidate - Annie Raja - from Wayanad, which is held by Rahul Gandhi. The Congress has not said if it is willing to surrender this seat.

There are still question marks over deals in other states, including Tamil Nadu, which sends 39 MPs to the Lok Sabha and Andhra Pradesh, which sends 25. The former may be easier, given the Congress and the ruling DMK have been allied since the 2019 election and have a working relationship.

READ | In Tamil Nadu, It's DMK-Congress vs BJP, Ex-Ally AIADMK

Overall, the Congress will want to do dramatically better in the south this time than it did last.

READ | PM Begins BJP's South Push With Multiple Projects, Airport Terminal

This won't be enough to stop the BJP from claiming a national win, but will go a long way towards balancing Parliament and ensuring Mr Modi's party faces a healthy opposition.

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