New Delhi: The Congress could win 100 Lok Sabha seats in this election - after winning just 44 in 2014 and 52 in 2019. The last time the party boasted a triple-digit score was in 2009 when it won 206 seats and propelled former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the United Progressive Alliance to a second term.
At 11 pm the Congress had won 85 seats - including the Amethi bastion in Uttar Pradesh it lost to the BJP's Smriti Irani in the 2019 election - across the country and was leading in 14 others.
And the party-led INDIA bloc - set up in June 2023 to beat Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP-led National Democratic Alliance - was ahead in 232, which is short of its claim of 295.
The NDA was leading in 292 seats; the ruling party had quickly surged past the halfway mark of 272 in early leads as counting began (starting with postal ballots) but slowed down as the hours went by.
At 11 pm the BJP, on its own, had won 221 - well short of its target of 370 - and was leading in 19. The party had set its NDA partners a target of 30 more seats which, interestingly, they have delivered.
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Prime Minister Modi, therefore, is set for a historic third term, but the BJP's hope of crossing the 400-seat mark - something only the Congress has done - has hit an INDIA wall.
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What Happened In 2014?
In 2014 the Congress - then led by Rahul Gandhi - faced the much-vaunted 'Modi wave' and slumped to a massive defeat, losing 162 seats and dropping nearly 9.3 per cent of the vote share.
The 2014 election saw the emergence of the Hindi heartland - the belt of Hindi-speaking states from Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west to Bihar and Jharkhand in the east, and down to Madhya Pradesh.
The BJP swept these states 10 years ago en route to winning 336 of the nation's 543 seats.
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On its own the saffron party won 282 seats.
The NDA won 73 seats in UP, 41 in Maharashtra, 31 in Bihar, and 27 in Madhya Pradesh. It also swept Gujarat's 26, Rajasthan's 25, Delhi's seven, Himachal Pradesh's four, and Uttarakhand's five seats, and won 12 of Jharkhand's 14, 10 of Chhattisgarh's 11, and seven of Haryana's 10 seats.
The Congress won just two seats in UP - the party strongholds of Amethi and Raebareli. The party picked up only six seats across the rest of the belt, with its UPA partners contributing a further six.
What Happened In 2019?
Five years on the BJP eked further ahead, winning 303 seats on its own and 353 with allies.
Once again the Hindi belt was key to beating the Congress' hopes, with the party picking up 74 in UP, 39 in Bihar, and 28 in Madhya Pradesh. It also swept Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi, winning 77 seats from these states.
Adding Chhattisgarh's nine and Jharkhand's 11, the BJP amassed 238 seats from this belt.
The Congress, this time contesting under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, slumped badly yet again, picking up just six seats on its own and seven with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.
More seriously, Mr Gandhi suffered a shock defeat from UP's Amethi constituency; the Congress leader, looking to claim a fourth consecutive win, instead lost badly to the BJP's Smriti Irani.
Mr Gandhi resigned from his position as Congress President after the defeat, and remained adamant that he would not reconsider his decision despite of wave of objections from Gandhi family loyalists.
2024 Lok Sabha Election: What Exit Polls Said
Two of 12 exit pollsters - India Today-Axis My India and India TV-CNX - believed the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance could amass as much as 401 seats. A third - News24-Today's Chanakya - said it will land spot on the 400-seat mark, and three others - ABP News-C Voter, Jan Ki Baat, and News Nation - gave Mr Modi's election-winning juggernaut a maximum of 383, 392, and 378 seats.
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The INDIA bloc - seen by many as a ragtag bunch of opposition parties - laughed off the predictions and vowed it would do what it set out to in June last year - defeat Prime Minister Modi and the BJP.
Congress boss Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi insisted the group would win 295 seats.
Exit poll data disagreed; although four give the bloc 150+ seats.
TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, Times Now-ETG, and Republic TV-P Marq said the INDIA group will win 166, 152, and 154 seats, while News Nation and ABP News-C Voter predicted hauls between 152 and 182.
India News-D Dynamics and News 24-Today's Chanakya were far less sanguine, predicting 125 and 107 seats only, while the others believed INDIA will score between 109 and 166 seats.
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