Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis met outgoing Shiv Sena boss Eknath Shinde in Mumbai Tuesday evening, amid continuing suspense, and an absorbing tug-of-war, over the identity of the next Maharashtra Chief Minister. The meeting is being seen as an outreach by the BJP - to placate an ally who will likely be removed from the top post despite leading a government that was re-elected.
The big decision is expected within 24 hours; the BJP's newly elected MLAs are meeting tonight - with Union Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and ex-Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani as 'observers' from the central leadership - to choose a legislature party leader, who will then become the new Chief Minister.
The smart money is on Mr Fadnavis, a two-time former Chief Minister and the man widely credited with orchestrating the BJP's comeback, including hobbling the formerly undivided Sena and NCP and picking up the pieces; the breakaway factions added 75 seats to the BJP's tally in this election.
However, for Mr Fadnavis to return to the top post Eknath Shinde must be persuaded to stand down, and possibly even accept a deputy's berth, like the BJP leader did in 2022. And it is at that point the BJP's plans to reclaim power in Maharashtra, without again antagonising a Sena ally, have hit a snag.
The Eknath Shinde Factor
Last week Mr Shinde, after days of public posturing, backed down. He said he spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said he would not be an "obstacle" to a BJP Chief Minister.
READ | "Won't Obstruct": In Maharashtra Race, E Shinde Leaves It To BJP
However, there remains a feeling that Mr Shinde and his party are displeased at being told to stand down. Mr Shinde's absence from Mumbai last week - he retreated to his hometown in Satara district - raised eyebrows, as did the BJP simultaneously announcing a swearing-in date - December 5.
There was more drama this afternoon after Mr Shinde was admitted to a hospital in Thane, where he has been based since returning from Satara. The Sena leader, however, played down talk of an emergency - his team called it a "routine check-up" - and said, "sab badiya hain (everything is fine)."
And while Mr Shinde has made all the right noises, some within his party have not. Sena leader Deepak Kesarkar has reminded the BJP the election was fought under the Mr Shinde's leadership.
"Now it is up to the BJP's central leadership to decide how to maintain his stature."
'1+2' Formula To Continue?
Sources have told NDTV over the past week the existing 1+2 formula established after the mid-term switch, i.e., a Chief Minister and two deputies, will continue, except the '1' will be from the BJP.
The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction will each name a Deputy Chief Minister. To sweeten the deal, the former will get 12 portfolios, including, possibly, the covered Urban Development, Public Works Department, and Water Resources ministries. The latter will get nine, including Finance.
READ | Maharashtra Chief Minister From BJP, Will Have 2 Deputies: Sources
This also means Mr Pawar will likely return as Deputy Chief Minister. But it is unclear if Eknath Shinde will be happy with that 'demotion'. A possible workaround had been suggested - that he could get a union ministerial berth and his son, Shrikant Shinde, could become the Deputy Chief Minister.
READ | E Shinde's Son Junks Deputy Buzz In Maharashtra Race
Shinde junior, however, has rubbished, at least publicly, that idea.
"... there is no truth in it... the news about my taking up post of Deputy Chief Minister is baseless".
Maharashtra Assembly Election Recap
The BJP, Mr Shinde's Sena and Mr Pawar's NCP, registered a landslide win when votes were counted November 23, even if the Congress and the opposing Maha Vikas Aghadi has cried foul since.
As the single largest party in the Assembly, the BJP is widely seen as having the edge in the chief ministerial race; it won 132 of 288 seats. The Sena is second with 57 and the NCP is third with 41.
The BJP, therefore, is not reliant on both allies to reach the majority mark of 145.
READ | Eknath Shinde Now Where Uddhav Was In '19, With Big Difference
And the NCP has already professed support, meaning the Shinde Sena doesn't have the leverage it had in 2022, when Mr Shinde broke from Uddhav Thackeray's side and allied with the BJP.
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