Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress had dominated the 2011 assembly elections in West Bengal, winning 184 seats.
Highlights
- 60% chance Mamata Banerjee will win 2nd straight term as CM
- Left-Congress combine has 40% chance of winning this election
- Smallest of swings likely to have a big impact on the poll results
There is a 60 per cent chance, based on historical data and current alliances, that Mamata Banerjee will win a second straight term as chief minister of West Bengal, where assembly elections are being held in six phases. The Left-Congress combine has a 40 per cent chance of winning.
But the story is likely to be in the swing of votes, even the smallest.
A swing of 3 per cent votes from Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress to the Left-Congress could see the latter race ahead with 149 of Bengal's 294 seats, giving the combine a slender majority, with Trinamool trailing at 129.
Conversely, just a two per cent swing in favour of the Trinamool will make it cross the 200 mark.
Mamata Banerjee's party had fought the 2011 assembly elections in partnership with the Congress. The Trinamool dominated the election, winning 184 seats. The Congress had won 42 and the Left lost a state it had ruled for three decades, winning only 62.
By the 2014 national election, Ms Banerjee had parted ways with the Congress and had only grown stronger. Her party won 34 of Bengal's 42 Lok Sabha seats, the equivalent of 214 assembly seats. The Congress and Left, contesting separately, dominated 28 assembly seats each and the BJP made a first impact, winning two seats equal to 24 assembly seats and increasing its vote share from 4 to 17 per cent.
In 2014 polls, Mamata Banerjee's party won 34 of Bengal's 42 Lok Sabha seats
In 2011, the BJP had won no seat and it has invested in building it cadres since, hoping to convert its performance in 2014 into real seats in the state assembly this time.
In 2014, amid a Narendra Modi wave, the BJP gained primarily from a 12 per cent swing away from the Left. If the Left can recover even half or six per cent of that, it could mean a gain of 55 seats for the Left-Congress combine.
Fall of the Left versus rise of BJP in 2014
The opposition unity, which means that the Left and Congress do not cut into each other's votes this time like they did in 2014, could also potentially mean a gain of 41 assembly seats over their tally from two years ago.
Those two factors could take the Left-Congress' home across the halfway mark.
The two parties together had the equivalent of 56 assembly seats in the 2014 general elections. Had they contested that election together, they could have dominated in 97 assembly segments, though still not impacting the Trinamool's dominance.
But if they had allied in 2011, when the Congress was kingmaker, or queenmaker in this case, Mamata Banerjee may not have been chief minister.