New Delhi:
India's monsoon rains are a week ahead of schedule, powering across two-thirds of the country by June 14 and heavier than normal, but the weather office is sticking to its forecast for average rains during the entire four-month period.
Heavier than normal rains can trigger flooding but at this stage in the June to September season, they spur planting of crops. India's biggest concern is drought during a monsoon, with rains crucial for the 55 percent of farmland without irrigation.
The monsoon should cover the whole of India before the usual mid-July timing and their distribution over major crop-growing regions should be fairly even, BP Yadav, a director at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said on Friday.
Rainfall is expected to be at 101 percent of the long-term average in July and 96 percent in August, two key months for the planting and maturing of crops.
The strong start to the June to September monsoon boosts prospects of robust farm output.
That could help the economy and hold down inflation, a critical concern for the coalition government as it readies for a round of state polls this year and a national election by May 2014.
India is one of the world's biggest producers and consumers of rice, sugar and other food agricultural commodities. A strong monsoon will underpin government confidence harvests will be ample to cover the extra grains needed for its plans for a $24 billion welfare scheme to give cheap food to more of its poor.
The weather office first forecast an average monsoon in April, before the season started, and the continuing absence of the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which can cause droughts, played a part in its confirmation of that forecast on Friday.
The rains have also been ample over seven southern and western states, including major sugar producer Maharashtra, which were hit by drought last year and need plentiful and timely rain to assist a recovery.
© Thomson Reuters 2013