Once it reaches Kerala, the monsoon is expected to pick up speed, the Met department has said.
Highlights
- 96% chance that monsoon will be normal to excess this year: Met dept
- Monsoon in Kerala a week late, it usually reaches on June 1
- June to see below normal monsoon, to pick up in second half
There are 96 per cent chances that rainfall will be normal to excess this year, the Indian Meteorological Department said today, keeping its forecast for monsoon unchanged. There are also zero per cent chances of the monsoon being deficient this year.
The first forecast was released on April 12.
The Met Department also expects the monsoon to reach Kerala in the next four to five days.
The monsoon has missed its date with Kerala this time as it usually reaches the coastal state on June 1.
The Met Department had earlier predicted that the monsoon will be late this time. Private forecaster Skymet had said the monsoon will reach on time, but that certainly did not happen.
Last year, the Met Department's forecast was proved right and even this time the indication is that the Met may get it right once again.
Met expects June to see below normal rain and the monsoon to get active in the second half only. However, rain in July is likely to be 107 per cent of Long Period Average and 104 per cent of Long Period Average during August with a model error of plus minus nine per cent.
But once it reaches Kerala, the monsoon is expected to pick up speed, as per Dr LS Rathore, Director General, Met Department.
"Pace of monsoon would be speedy after it hits Kerala," he said.
In June, the monsoon is likely to be better in the second half only. El Nino conditions are getting weak and la Nina is expected to establish in the later part of monsoon which usually leads to good rainfall.
Dr DS Pai says there were 24 La Nina years between 1901 and 2015, out of which 16 years saw above normal rain. There was normal rain for seven years and only one year witnessed below normal rain.