Army patrolling a riot-hit area in Muzaffarnagar.
This weekend's communal clashes in Muzaffarnagar in Western Uttar Pradesh in which 26 people have died confirm what the union government has been bracing for - the near and present danger that political parties will try to polarise Hindu and Muslim voters in states like Bihar and Karnataka ahead of the national elections, due by May.
A comprehensive review of the increased communal violence that has already erupted this year - 451 incidents as compared to 410 for all of last year - was conducted recently by the country's senior-most bureaucrat, Cabinet Secretary Ajit Seth, along with Union Home Secretary Anil Goswami. They studied seven states that have seen worrying cases of violence between Hindus and Muslims this year.
"We are likely to see more communal clashes as the 2014 elections come near," Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde told reporters yesterday, though he did not name or blame any political party. (
Read: 12 dead in Muzaffarnagar clashes)
The review also highlights a new trend - communal clashes now seem to be originating in rural areas which have so far not been tainted by religious tension.
"For us in the administration, this is a nightmare," a senior official associated with the review said. "Besides lax policing, the general awareness in rural hinterlands of India is lower than it is in cities and towns, and therefore it is easier to incite people," he added.
"So far communal clashes were associated with cities and towns and would occasionally spread inward into rural areas, but that trend appears to be reversing," the officer added.
The Centre has urged all 28 states to strengthen and revitalise local "peace communities" in rural areas which have representatives from different communities and have in the past been effective in containing and resolving conflicts.
"There has been a manifold increase in religious bodies and groups in the rural and semi-urban areas, and invariably we find the involvement of these bodies and groups in communal clashes," an official associated with the Centre's review told NDTV.