NDTV Public Opinion: How Quota For Lingayats, Vokkaligas May Affect BJP

The contentious issue of tweaks in the reservation policy made by Karnataka's BJP government -- shifting four per cent reservation available to Muslims in jobs and education to the politically powerful Lingayats and Vokkaligas -- is likely to bring the party electoral dividends.

NDTV's new opinion poll in partnership with Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) has found that only 33 per cent of people surveyed were aware of the new policy. The percentage of people fully supporting each aspect of the government's move has not exceeded 30 per cent. But the percentage of those who partially support the decision is high and have a chance of converting into votes.

The survey found that 45 per cent people show some support for the increased reservation for Lingayats, 37 per cent for Vokkaligas, 40 and 41 per cent for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Twenty-three per cent people fully support the scrapping of quota for Muslims and still more, 25 per cent, partially support it.

In March, the Karnataka government scrapped the 4 per cent Other Backward Class quota for Muslims. The community has been recognised as a backward class in Karnataka for more than 100 years.

The Lingayatas, traditional supporters of the BJP, were previously getting 5 per cent quota. The Vokkaliggas, who are divided between the Congress and HD Kumaraswamy's Janata Dal Secular, had 4 per cent. Under the new rules, they are getting 7 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.

The quota for Scheduled Castes was also raised from 15% to 17%, and the ST quota from 3% to 7%. The Centre has been asked to incorporate the changes in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution since taken together, they exceed the 50 per cent ceiling fixed by the Supreme Court.

The changes are seen as part of the BJP's efforts to increase its outreach in the state, where it never won majority in the 224-member assembly on its own. But it has angered marginal sections like Banjara, Bhovi, Koracha and Korama communities, who have demanded a caste-based census that is currently being supported by the opposition parties including the Congress.

During the survey – aimed to gauge public mood ahead of the May 10 assembly election in Karnataka -- 2,143 voters spread across 82 polling stations of 21 assembly constituencies were interviewed.

The method to pick them was "multi-stage systematic random sampling" or SRS -- meaning the constituencies, polling stations and the people interviewed were all randomly selected.  The sample size, though small, is expected to be a representative section of the state and correctly reflect the voters' mood.