Northeast's Biggest Insurgent Group NSCN(IM) Threatens To End 27-Year-Old Ceasefire If 3rd-Party Intervention Not Possible

The northeast's largest insurgent group NCSN(IM) has threatened to resume "violent armed resistance" 27 years after it signed a ceasefire with India over allegations that the government "betrayed" a landmark agreement signed in 2015.

The NSCN(IM) in a statement proposed the intervention of a third-party to resolve India's alleged "betrayal" of the 2015 Framework Agreement, failing which it would "resume the violent armed resistance against India for defending Nagalim's unique history and her sovereign existence."

The insurgent group headquartered in Nagaland did not specify what it meant by "third-party".

Thuingaleng Muivah, the 90-year-old chief of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), or NSCN(IM), in a statement alleged India has not kept its word on recognising the "Nagalim national flag" and the "Nagalim constitution" as per the Framework Agreement signed in August 2015.

The 2015 Framework Agreement was billed as a major breakthrough, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Mr Muivah and nearly two dozen Indian officials and NSCN(IM) members sharing a stage for the camera after signing the agreement.

The content of the agreement has not been officially released to the public.

The first sign of strain in the post-2015 talks process came when the NSCN(IM) alleged India refused to recognise the 'Nagalim sovereign national flag' and the 'Nagalim sovereign national constitution', which to this day remain unsolved.

"It is pertinent to understand that Nagalim and the NSCN have given India the finest opportunity to resolve the decades old Indo-Naga political conflict on the basis of the letter and spirit of the officially signed Framework Agreement of August 3, 2015," Mr Muivah, the General Secretary of the NSCN(IM), said in a five-page statement.

Mr Muivah then alleged that India, however, "deliberately betrayed the letter and spirit of the Framework Agreement of August 3, 2015 by refusing to recognise and acknowledge the Nagalim sovereign national flag and, Nagalim sovereign national constitution."

He said Nagalim and the NSCN "will not wait forever for the GoI [government of India] to respect and honour the letter and spirit of the Framework Agreement..."

"In order to conclude and realise an honourable political agreement, we rule out peaceful means against the ignominious betrayal of the letter and spirit of the Framework Agreement by the GoI. However, in the first place we propose a third-party intervention to resolve the betrayal of the letter and spirit of the Framework Agreement... but if such a political initiative is rejected by the GoI, the NSCN shall resume the violent armed resistance against India for defending the Nagalim unique history and her sovereign existence," Mr Muivah said.

The central government has not responded to Mr Muivah's statement yet.

The NSCN(IM) signed a ceasefire with India in October 1997. Since then, over 600 rounds of political negotiations have taken place between the two sides. Two major agreements have been signed over the years - first during former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's time, and the second in 2015, a year into PM Modi's first term.

The other top leader of the NSCN(IM) was Isak Chishi Swu, who died in June 2016 at age 87 of multi-organ failure. Swu along with Mr Muivah formed the armed group in 1980, opposing the Shillong Accord signed by the then Naga National Council (NNC) with the central government for bringing peace in Nagaland.

Some military analysts have speculated of an 'attrition' strategy to handle the NSCN(IM). As senior leaders die of age, the younger replacements may be less rigid, or the group may break into further smaller splinters amenable to lasting peace under India's Constitution.