Patna Opposition Meet - Half Battle Won, Or Just One Tiny Step?

From social justice to the alleged misuse of investigating agencies by the Centre to violence in Manipur, the wrestlers' protest and even the Delhi ordinance, several issues are likely to be discussed in the opposition meeting to be held in Patna on Friday.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is looking at a Jayaprakash Narayan (JP)-like role for himself, is set to play host to opposition parties. Patna and the JP movement, as we know, was instrumental in challenging the might of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1974.

But this is just the first step towards what can result in some joint opposition to the BJP which scored 303 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 -- 21 more than in 2014. It won't be easy for the opposition to provide a strong counter to that unless it comes up with a clear-cut "one seat one candidate" formula in as many seats as possible.

This is also the first-time parties like the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) - hostile towards the Congress - will share a common platform with the party. That reflects the importance of the meeting.

There will be no common minimum programme in this meeting; only plans will be discussed, official sources told NDTV, indicating that a common statement is likely.

It is easier said than done, as a number of stumbling blocks have to be addressed before the final picture emerges.

4 Key Questions Arising From Opposition Meet

Will parties push for one face to rally around?

Lok Sabha elections in the country have become personality-driven, specifically since the emergence of PM Narendra Modi.

In just the Hindi heartland in 2019, the BJP under PM Modi won 141 seats -- which was 71 per cent of the seats it contested -- with more than a 50% vote share.

In many states, leaders such as Yogi Adityanath, Siddaramaiah, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Mamata Banerjee have been able to create voter bases centred around their own politics, which only proves the importance of a strong leader in Indian politics.

The BJP has projected PM Modi as a decisive leader, with strong national security credentials and a raft of welfare schemes with a large beneficiary base cutting across caste lines. Many non-BJP parties feel a strong leader to rally around will give the opposition a certain direction. But with leaders such as Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge in the Congress, Sharad Pawar in the NCP, Mamata Banerjee in Trinamool Congress, and Nitish Kumar, it won't be easy for the opposition to pick a name.

Will there be a common minimum programme?

The contradictions between various opposition parties are not easily wished away. Among recent challenges is the ordinance passed by the Centre, taking away most of the Delhi government's powers. While AAP wants other opposition parties to support it, the Congress leadership is treading cautiously. The Congress was also late to condemn the alleged high-handedness of the investigating agencies when it came to the arrest of AAP leader Manish Sisodia. The politics around Hindutva ideologue Veer Savarkar is another issue, with Congress, specifically Rahul Gandhi, often picking on it and landing the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena in a spot.

Even in issues such as the Ram Temple, many opposition parties differed from the rest. Being wary of losing their Hindu voters in the face of an aggressive BJP, some have gone slow on issues related to minorities, and even on the issue of the Uniform Civil Code. While it is clear the protection of constitutional values, federalism and secularism will be fundamental to the united opposition's common strategy, it won't be easy for parties to come up with a programme that represents all their interests equally.

Will regional Parties that want more relevance, make adjustments?

The Trinamool (TMC), Congress, AAP, Samajwadi and others have often fought each other and in different states. It won't be easy driving a cordial relationship among them. Last year, when Mamata Banerjee convened a meeting of opposition parties to build consensus on a joint candidate for the Presidential elections, she found only limited support from the Congress. There are also electoral rivalries. Just recently, three months after the Congress won its first MLA from Sagardighi Assembly seat in a bypoll, the TMC poached the lawmaker, Bayron Biswas, on Monday, leading to more words of discord between the Congress and TMC. The loss of Sagardighi was a big setback for the TMC, casting doubt on the belief that the party is preferred by Muslims. AAP has grown largely at the cost of the Congress, which often dubs it the BJP's B-team. The Samajwadi Party too has called its alliance with the Congress in the past a bad experience, which is why it's not going to be easy to get regional parties to make adjustments and give space to the Congress.

Will Seat Sharing become the biggest challenge?

Delhi and West Bengal are being seen as the biggest challenges for opposition unity, given the history of friction between the Congress, TMC and AAP. It remains to be seen how seat-sharing arrangements take place in states such as Jharkhand, Kerala, and Uttar Pradesh, where several opposition parties have high stakes. Together, these states account for 130 Lok Sabha seats. What happens in states like Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, where parties like the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and BJD have largely decided to remain equidistant from the Congress and the BJP, will also be interesting.

Will Congress give space to others?

The Congress believes it should rightfully be the pivot of opposition unity efforts, given that it is the largest among the parties and thinks of itself as the only national alternative to the BJP. Its victory in Karnataka has only strengthened the party's aspirations. However, the difficult task of convincing the other parties has been left to Nitish Kumar, which is why he is emerging as the fulcrum of the opposition. It is important to remember that in 2019, in 20 states and Union Territories, the Congress didn't win a single seat and had a double-digit tally in just one state, Kerala, while in 224 seats the BJP's vote share exceeded 50 per cent compared to 136 in 2014.

There are other questions too. For example, what will this opposition grouping call itself, given that UPA is an old story. How will a united opposition deal with the problem that troubles them the most - action by investigating agencies - and will they take collective legal action? 

The Patna meet may not produce all the answers, but it could give us a hint of what to expect.