Prannoy Roy, Ruchir Sharma Discuss Trends Of 2020s: Highlights

• America has dominated the world as a financial superpower. Its stock market share has risen to 256 per cent. The entire Europe's is 72 per cent, whereas China's share is 72 percent.

• Every decade has belonged to some country. In the 50s, the post-war Europe had been the biggest economic winner. The 60s belonged to the US. The US gained massively in the 90s as well. The first decade of the century saw the rise of emerging markets.

• In the next decade, the United States will peak.

Trend 2: New big companies likely to emerge and smaller may be beautiful again

• The big companies have got bigger, with their market share rising from 9 to 14 percent.

• The top ten stocks gained a massive 2100 percent in the last decade. The same stocks will gain 65 percent in the next decade.

• Churn is the norm. Here is the list of top 10 most valuable companies in the world over the decades.

• Small companies will bounce back in the United States. In India, in the last decade, smaller companies grew by 6 percent, whereas big companies grew 115 percent; small companies have rarely been depressed compared to large funds.

• New big companies are likely to emerge in the next decade. Smaller firms may also see gains.

Trend 3: The potential fall of big tech

• In the last decade, stocks of technology companies gain 325 percent The commodities stock gained only 30 per cent.

• FANGS- Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google- gave massive stock market returns in the last decade.

• Technology companies flourished relatively free of government regulations

• Political pressure is building to regulate firms in several big markets. In the United States, lot of deregulation is going on. Growth rates of several big technology firm is dropping.

• The next decade will witness potential fall of big tech firms. Tech is the future but first dominating may change.

Trend 4: De-globalisation makes way for localisation

• In the last decade, global trade peaked. The world is now moving towards de-globalisation.

• In the last decade, India has seen a big rise in the market share of locally made natural products.

• Growing number of people don't trust big brands. Nationalist is one reason behind the trust deficit.

• In the last decade, more and more countries seemed inclined towards adopting protectionist policies that require data to be stored locally. 

• De-globalisation has made way for localisation.

Trend 5: De-population marches on

• There is a big decline in the growth rate of working age population.

• Working age population growth rate is also declining in India.

• Working population is falling in many nations. China, Germany are among the nations witnessing slowing working population growth.

• Slowing rate of working population growth seems to have a correlation between economic growth rate. Fewer workers mean slower economic growth. 

• India has slipped many notches down on the list of economic growth of the world. The country, which had been ranked 14th best in the world in 2010, was ranked 44th in 2019.

• In the next decade, expect a world with slower growth.

Trend 6: New Generation= New Consumption Habits

• The rise of the new generation has redefined consumer trends. People are now spending on experiences. There is a global change in consumer spending.

• The world has a favourite pastime. The game industry experienced a massive market-share rise.

• More money is being spend on gaming than other past times. The revenue per user is the highest for the gaming industry.

• There is a big boom in the gaming industry in India as well. The number of gaming companies increased from 25 in 2010 to 275 in 2019.

• The number of game downloads is the highest in the world.

• In the next decade, the new generation will have new consumption habits. Gaming as an entertainment activity will surge ahead of films and music.

Trend 7: Peak in polarisation

• The vote share of populist parties have risen over the decade.

• Here is a glimpse how populism play a role in determining voting pattern.

• The increase in polarisation has meant political leaders now have hardcore popular support.

• The next decade will see a world divided like never before. But polarisation is likely to reach its peak.

Trend 8: Return of Inflation

• The last decade saw the lowest interest rates in 800 years.

• In the last decade, the world and India experienced low inflation. India is on the 145th position on the world inflation list.

• Global unemployment rate is very low. Productivity growth is also low. 

Trend 9: The fifth estate (online) rules

• The pattern of news consumption has changed. People are getting news less and less from newspapers and TV.

• In the US, there is big increment in the percentage of people consuming news from the Internet.

• 56 percent Indians below the age of 35 consume news from the Internet.

• Twitter has emerged as a prominent platform for news consumption.

Trend 10: The rise of moral capitalism

• The economic inequality has risen many folds in the last decade.

• The number of billionaires in India has risen too.

• The demand for more equality is increasing.

• 81 percent of people in India want corporates to work for social change.

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Prannoy Roy, Ruchir Sharma