"BJP May Be No. 1 Party In Bengal": Prashant Kishor's Big 2024 Prediction

The BJP is likely to emerge as the number 1 party in Trinamool Congress-ruled West Bengal in the upcoming Lok Sabha election, poll strategist and Jan Suraaj leader Prashant Kishor has said. In an interview to PTI, Mr Kishor has said the BJP has worked hard to expand its presence in south and east India over the years and may reap dividends this time.

"You would be surprised as, in all likelihood, to my mind, the BJP is going to be the number one party in West Bengal," he said, adding that the BJP will also lead the Lok Sabha seat tally in Odisha and emerge as the first or second party in Congress-ruled Telangana.

Interestingly, Mr Kishor, also known as PK, had assisted Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee in her campaign for the 2021 Bengal polls that saw her return to power with a thumping win.

Stressing that neither the BJP nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi were invincible, Mr Kishor said the Opposition had missed opportunities.

In multiple interviews, Mr Kishor has said that the BJP wins a majority of its seats in the northern and western regions of the country and this manages to cover the setbacks it suffers in the eastern and southern belt.

Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Kerala account for 204 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, but the BJP couldn't cross the 50-seat mark in these states either in 2014 or 2019.

Mr Kishor said that in the upcoming election, the BJP will feel the heat only if the Opposition, especially the Congress, can ensure that it loses at least 100 seats in its strongholds in north and west. And that's not going to happen, he said. "By and large, the BJP will be able to hold its ground in these regions."

On how the BJP has tried to up its game in the eastern and southern states, he said the party's top leaders, including Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, have made frequent visits to these states. But the Opposition leaders, he pointed out, had made little effort in the BJP's strongholds.

"Count the number of visits the Prime Minister made to Tamil Nadu in the last five years, versus Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi or any other opposition leader for that matter made in battleground states. Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success," he said.

On the Opposition parties coming together to form the INDIA bloc, he said an alliance is neither desirable nor effective. The BJP has been winning because parties like the Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP and Trinamool Congress are unable to take it head-on in their own turfs, he said. They have no narrative, face or agenda, he said.

Mr Kishor, however, rejected suggestions that a third straight win will pave the way for a long era of BJP domination, noting that the Congress's decline began after its biggest win in 1984.

He said the BJP had a barren phase electorally in 2015 and 2016 when it lost several assembly polls, but the Opposition missed its chances. The BJP, he said, almost lost power in Gujarat and was defeated in several states in 2018, but Congress "blundered" in the 2019 polls.

Following the Covid pandemic, he said, Prime Minister Modi suffered from a dip in his approval ratings and the BJP lost in Bengal. But Opposition leaders sat at their homes, allowing the Prime Minister to make a comeback, he said. "If you keep dropping catches, the batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batter," Mr Kishor said.

In Bengal, the BJP won 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 elections, ending a close second after the Trinamool that won 22. In the 2021 state polls, however, the Trinamool bounced back in stellar style. The BJP is now pushing hard to score big in Bengal, especially in the wake of the Sandeshkhali issue that has emerged as a key talking point in Bengal.