Poll strategist Prashant Kishor does not expect a significantly weakened opposition after the 2024 Lok Sabha election, which he has predicted will be won by the ruling BJP. In an exclusive interview with NDTV on Tuesday, he pointed to the farmers protest of 2020 and 2021, which forced the recall of three farm laws despite the BJP government having a majority in the Lok Sabha for a second consecutive term.
"It is a good thing that we (will) have a strong opposition. The opposition will not be weakened... no matter what the BJP's winning margin. The farmers forced (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi to apologise and take back laws. (So) the government has to be careful... it can't undermine public dissent," Mr Kishor said.
He also red-flagged three potential "pain points" - rural distress, unemployment, and income disparity - for the government, suggesting the opposition might benefit from attacking the BJP on these issues.
READ | Farm Laws To Be Cancelled, Says PM. What Are The Three "Black" Laws
In an extensive discussion with NDTV on the general election and the opposition's chances of an upset, Mr Kishor came down in favour of the Prime Minister's party, which he led to a thumping win in 2014 before then leading the Trinamool, the Congress, and the DMK to similarly big wins (in Bengal, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu state polls) over his former employers.
He said he expected the BJP - which won 282 seats (on its own) in 2014 and 303 in 2019 - to do at least as well this time, despite the challenge of a united opposition - the INDIA bloc.
"The future will show... (the election results will be out on June 4)... As far as I am concerned, for the past five months I have been saying that no matter how you assess, it seems Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same as last time or do slightly better."
Mr Kishor said the BJP would continue to benefit from strongholds in northern and western states, which account for 325 of the country's 543 elected Lok Sabha seats. He also said he expects the BJP - which has traditionally struggled in the south and east - to do better there.
READ | "3 Missed Opportunities For Opposition": Prashant Kishor To NDTV
The poll tactician, who now heads the Jan Suraj, also criticised the opposition for having spurned three chances to materially damage the BJP's election-winning machinery.
The three chances he was referring to were the saffron party's indifferent state election results in 2015 and 2016. Over those two years the party lost multiple Assembly polls.
The second chance was post-demonetisation, when the BJP had a big win in 2017 to win Uttar Pradesh for the first time in over a decade but almost lost Gujarat (the PM's home state), which it has ruled since 1995.
The final "dropped catch", as Mr Kishor put it, was a dip in the Prime Minister's approval ratings post the Covid pandemic, and the BJP's poor showing in the Bengal election.
"If you keep dropping catches, the batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batter," Mr Kishor had warned two months ago.
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