New Delhi:
Finance Minister
Pranab Mukherjee, according to sources, will run for President. He is expected to file his nomination papers on June 25, if he is ratified as the UPA candidate at a meeting of its allies today. He reportedly remains the first choice of his party president and UPA chairperson, Sonia Gandhi. Mr Mukherjee will resign as Finance Minister on June 24, said sources.
But who will become the next President of India could rest largely on Mulayam Singh Yadav, the head of the Samajwadi Party. Congress sources say that back-channel talks have succeeded and that he is likely to support Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. But Mamata Banerjee reiterated this morning that Mr Yadav, like her, remains committed to backing former president
APJ Abdul Kalam for a second term.
Mr Yadav is keeping everyone guessing - he has travelled for the day to Agra and refused to comment on the presidential election there. A senior leader of his party and his brother, Ram Gopal Yadav, said Mr Yadav will make up his mind at a later point. The silver lining for the Congress is that Ram Gopal Yadav has said that contrary to popular belief, the Samajwadi Party does not want mid-term elections. Ram Gopal however made it clear that their party will not join the UPA coalition, but will continue to provide external support.
Ms Banerjee emphatically denied reports this morning that Mr Yadav is opting out of the liaison they have formed, throwing the Congress into a seizure.
"Our clarion call to all parties...is no
jhagda...no ego...we should support APJ Kalam...he can bring glory to the country," Ms Banerjee said this morning, asserting that the nuclear scientist will run for president. But in Patna, Dr Kalam was circumspect, saying that he would make a decision at a later time. He confirmed that different political leaders - he did not name them - are in touch with him.
(Confident Mamata sends 'advance congratulations' to Kalam)Sources say he will not contest the election if there's a chance that he could lose. Without Mr Yadav's numbers, Mr Kalam would find it tough to be elected.
If Mr Kalam enters the race, he is likely to run against Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who is believed to be the first choice of the Congress and its president, Sonia Gandhi. Sources say the ruling party hopes to gather the support of all its allies and the Finance Minister's name could be announced as the UPA's nominee for the next President of India after a formal meeting of the partners this evening.
The health warning, however, is that in the last 48 hours, the Presidential election has swung wildly from one unpredictable plot point to another. So the Congress is moving very carefully. It has summoned its chief ministers to Delhi. As it continues negotiations with Mr Yadav, it has dialled the Left for help. And at the UPA meeting today, the party will also put forth the name of Vice-President Hamid Ansari at today's UPA meeting.
Just in case Mr Yadav does not deliver, the Congress has phoned its allies ahead of today's group meeting and warned that the Mamata-Mulayam combine was trying to topple the government.
Ms Banerjee and Mr Yadav would stand to benefit from mid-term elections because they delivered stellar performances in recent elections in their state, and would like to leverage voter sentiment before their honeymoon period expires.
Both the Trinamool Congress and the Samajwadi Party are critical to the government's survival. Here is how the numbers add up in the Lok Sabha - the UPA including the Trinamool make up 274 MPs. The Samajwadi Party has 22 seats in the Lok Sabha, with which it offers outside support. Without the Trinamool's 20 MPs, and the Samjawadi Party out of the equation, the government will be reduced to a minority of 255, and forced to look for outside support elsewhere. In the electoral college, the two have a crucial 11 per cent and, as such, can push for Dr Kalam as President with the help of the opposition alliance NDA and some others.