NEW DELHI It appears that Mulayam Singh Yadav is coming through for the Congress after all. Sources say he has agreed to back Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee for the next President of India. And his brother, Ram Gopal, has said that contrary to popular belief, their Samajwadi Party does not want mid-term elections.
Ram Gopal however made it clear that their party will not join the UPA coalition, but will continue to provide external support.
That stand will likely end or at least severely strain the recent alignment between Mr Yadav and Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal. The Congress has been looking at Mr Yadav as a possible replacement for Ms Banerjee in the UPA coalition it leads at the centre. Ms Banerjee appeared to have nullified that plan by forming a close equation with Mr Yadav. Together, they shocked the Congress two days ago by suggesting that the Prime Minister be made the president.
The Congress accepted that as the public insult that it was intended to be, and is now at break point with Ms Banerjee. At the same time, she appears to be losing her connection with Mr Yadav, mainly over her insistence that Dr APJ Kalam should be the presidential candidate. Mr Yadav is unwilling to back Mr Kalam, who has served already as President, courtesy the BJP-led NDA. This makes him off-limits to the Samajwadi Party. It also makes Mr Yadav more inclined to support Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who is believed to be the first choice of the Congress and its president, Sonia Gandhi.
Sources say the ruling party hopes to gather the support of all its allies and the Finance Minister's name could be announced as the UPA's nominee for the next President of India after a formal meeting of the partners this evening.
The health warning however, is that in the last 48 hours, the Presidential election has swung wildly from one unpredictable plot point to another. So the Congress is moving very carefully. It has summoned its chief ministers to Delhi. As it continues negotiations with Mr Yadav, it has dialed the Left for help. And at the UPA meeting today, the party will also put forth the name of Vice-President Hamid Ansari at today's UPA meeting.
Just in case Mr Yadav does not deliver, the Congress has phoned its allies ahead of today's group meeting and warned that the Mamata-Mulayam combine was trying to topple the government. Allies were reportedly told that the Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool want fresh elections, and that is why it is imperative that the UPA have its own candidate in Rashtrapati Bhavan. This, even though Ms Banerjee insisted she does not want early polls and wants to remain a part of the UPA. "We want to be in the UPA. If they don't want us in the government, that choice is with the Congress."
Ms Banerjee and Mr Yadav would stand to benefit from mid-term elections because they delivered stellar performances in recent elections in their state, and would like to leverage voter sentiment before their honeymoon period expires.
Both the Trinamool and the Samajwadi Party are critical to the government's survival. Here are how the numbers add up in the Lok Sabha - the UPA including the Trinamool make up 274 MPs. The Samajwadi Party has 22 seats in the Lok Sabha, with which it offers outside support. Without the Trinamool's 20 MPs, and the Samjwadi Party out of the equation, the government will be reduced to a minority of 255, and forced to look for outside support elsewhere. In the electoral college the two have a crucial 11 per cent and as such can push for Dr Kalam as President with the help of the opposition alliance NDA and some others.