BJP's Retreat As Rajasthan Rebel Camp Takes Reality Check

The Rajasthan BJP today signalled that they will remain in wait-and-watch mode as the warring factions in the Congress camp showed signs of "disengagement" and the Ashok Gehlot government appeared to pull away from the precipice. The BJP, which has been planning to officially ask that Chief Minister Gehlot prove his majority in the assembly, indicated that they will desist for now.

According to sources close to the Chief Minister, Mr Gehlot's team has strengthened its number to 106 -- five more than the majority mark in the assembly.

Asked about the floor test, Gulab Chand Kataria, the Leader of Opposition in the Rajasthan Assembly, said, "We do not feel such need as of now. If we feel the need, the party (BJP) will sit together and make a decision", reported news agency ANI.

This morning, Congress rebel Sachin Pilot firmly denied that he was joining the BJP, as rifts surfaced within his team. The Congress, which stripped him of all positions in the party and the government and started the process to disqualify them in the state assembly, also softened its stance.

Unlike in Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress government had a wafer-thin majority and the BJP numbers were higher, the gap between the two sides is wide in Rajasthan. The BJP, which has 73 MLAs, needs the support of another 35 to take power in Rajasthan.

In view of the circumstances, the BJP had not been ready to commit itself until there was clarity on how many MLAs were with Mr Pilot. The party was clear since beginning that if he did not have the numbers, it cannot proceed with a plan for an alternative government, sources said.

This was the reason, sources said, the plans for a possible meeting between Mr Pilot and Mr Nadda fell through.  Mr Pilot, too, was cautious, postponing his promised statement last evening and then cancelling the one scheduled this morning.

Initially, Mr Pilot claimed he had the support of 33 MLAs but managed to scrape up only 19, some of whom could end up supporting the government, sources said.

Sources also said initially it was Jyotiraditya Scindia, who fuelled speculation about a rerun of Madhya Pradesh in Rajasthan. The BJP has lost both state to the Congress in 2018. In March, they managed to recoup their loss in Madhya Pradesh, with some help from Mr Scindia, who walked out of the Congress and joined them with 22 MLAs.

Mr Pilot's revolt, however, suits the BJP for now, sources indicated.

First, it destabilises the Ashok Gehlot government. Then, it helps divert attention from the recent Chinese incursion in Ladakh in which 20 Indian soldiers died in action, and the coronavirus crisis. On both issues the Centre has been facing sharp questions from the opposition. As a bonus, the trouble in Rajasthan again raised questions over the Gandhi family's control over the affairs within the Congress and its ability to solve it -- giving the BJP another "I told you so" moment.

The BJP is expected to keep the pot boiling by making statements, but it is not likely to take any concrete action as it may further consolidate Ashok Gehlot's position and weaken Sachin Pilot, party insiders said.