Rajya Sabha: Will Lokpal vote happen?

New Delhi: The government is keen to duck a vote tonight on the Lokpal Bill in the Rajya Sabha. The BJP will try its best to enforce one.  If a vote has to take place, it must occur before midnight when this session of Parliament expires.  If the deadline is missed, President Pratibha Patil will have to sanction an extension. That won't be necessary, said Rajiv Shukla, Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs.

Currently, the government's math appears vertiginous. Key ally Mamata Banerjee has led a campaign against provisions in the bill that allegedly violate the autonomy of states by instructing them to set up Lokayuktas -  state models of the national ombudsman, known as the Lokpal.

Her six MPs have moved two amendments, and they want those to be put to a vote. "State should be taken into confidence and consideration in a much better way than it has been. We were not taken into confidence," said Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar of the Trinamool Congress.

The Trinamool's amendments ask for the word "Lokayukta" to be dropped from the title of the Bill, and then for a series of clauses that refer to Lokayuktas to be deleted.

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The BJP is throwing its weight behind the latter. During today's lengthy debate, every regional party accused the bill of violating the principles of federalism.  For the government, the attempt is to convince the Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati's Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) to either support the Bill - or abstain with a symbolic walk out before the vote. That brings down the strength of the House and the halfway mark the government needs to cross.  Mayawati has ordered her 18 MPs to be present in the House for the vote - her strength makes her a potential game-changer.

In a calculated attempt to stave off a vote, Law Minister Salman Khurshid may soon make a statement of the 50% reservation  that the bill provides  for the nine members of the new Lokpal. The idea is to win over leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad who support reservation but have so far said they will vote against the bill because of its alleged trespassing on the turf of states. Traditionally, a discussion on reservation provokes strong reactions and chaos, and in this case, it could lead to the House being adjourned, providing a much-needed out for the government. The BJP, however, is certain that it has a majority and will try to enforce a vote, and  an amendment that asks for more autonomy for the CBI.  

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The government's other option is to save face by introducing the amendment that Ms Banerjee wants.  Chief negotiator for the Congress Pranab Mukherjee met with Lalu Prasad Yadav and Satish Mishra of Mayawati's BSP this evening. He reportedly offered that the government will move the amendment to drop Chapter 3 that deals with Lokayuktas. The  government's hope is that with the major point of dispute removed, it can use a voice vote to get the bill passed.  The BJP will push for a moral forma vote or division.  

If a single change is made to the Lokpal bill today, it will have to journey back to the Lok Sabha because the legislation cleared by the Rajya Sabha will be different than what the Lower House cleared two nights ago. Because this session of the Lok Sabha ended this morning, India will have to wait for another Parliament session to deliver its new anti-corruption law.