This Article is From May 14, 2009

Regional parties: The game changers

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New Delhi: As the counting day approaches, it is becoming increasingly clear that the regional players could prove to be the game changers and will play a big role in deciding the next government. So, the larger parties like the Congress and the BJP are trying all they can to woo these regional players.

The BJP has already begun attempts at courting the TDP chief who is expected to make a difference in 29 seats. The BJP will use TRS chief KC Rao who is in a state-level alliance with the TDP where they jointly contested nine seats.

But will past history be an advantage or disadvantage for Naidu who was with the NDA for seven years, and finally walked out on the issue of secularism.

Now, with at least 10 per cent of his vote base being Muslim, will he align with the BJP again?

According to sources, Naidu may even reach out to Chiranjeevi to shore up an anti-Congress alliance. The Congress, however, claims that Chiranjeevi will bat on its side.

In Orissa, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has said that he won't support either a Congress or a BJP-led government. And according to sources, the Left has asked Naveen to "keep Sharad Pawar happy".

But Naveen's decision will depend on the results of the Orissa assembly elections. If Naveen doesn't get enough seats on his own, he may fall back on the Congress. Naveen will need at least 74 seats.

On the other hand, NCP chief Sharad Pawar though says he is with the UPA, his cadres are pushing hard for him to be a Third Front's PM candidate.

He had endorsements from Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik and would easily get Left support. But Pawar's party is contesting only 66 seats and needs to win a bulk of them to have influence.

In Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati, who has openly declared her desire to be the Prime Minister, hasn't closed doors on either BJP or Congress. And Arun Jaitley could be the BJP's point person in opening the back channel.

But Mayawati may only offer outside support and make for a shaky ally. More dramatically, she could demand to be the PM and ask the BJP for outside support -- something the party won't consider.

In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa had predicted to take 27- 29 of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu this time. And though she has been campaigning with the Left, she is in touch with both the Congress and the BJP. Her singular aim is to be Chief Minister again.

If the Congress dumps DMK and allies with her, it automatically paves the way for a new state government.

Allying with the BJP could be more complicated since an elected state government can't be dismissed.
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