What Sheikh Hasina's Exit, Bangladesh Crisis Mean For India Ties

Sheikh Hasina today resigned as Bangladesh Prime Minister and fled the country. As the Bangladesh army took control amid anarchy in Dhaka, Sheikh Hasina's special flight landed at an air base near Delhi.

The 76-year-old was forced to quit after massive protests erupted against her government over a controversial quota system that reserved more than half of all government jobs for certain groups.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters defied curfew, marching on capital city Dhaka's streets and later stormed the Prime Minister's palace, vandalising the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Sheikh Hasina's father and Bangladesh's independence hero.

Bangladesh Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced that the country would be run by an interim government. Student protesters have already rejected a military government. The Army chief's address was delayed as they gave Hasina time to resign and leave the country.

The situation in Bangladesh worsened on August 4 when at least 98 people, including 14 policemen, were killed and hundreds injured in fierce clashes between protesters demanding Hasina's resignation and supporters of the ruling party. This proved to be one of the toughest challenges for Hasina, who had ruled the nation since 2009. Amid fierce clashes, the Bangladesh army had imposed indefinite curfew and 4G mobile internet and social media platforms were shut down to prevent the spread of 'rumours'.

The harsh reality

Almost 18 million young people are out of work in Bangladesh, which has a population of 170 million. Bangladesh is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The country exports clothes worth around $40 billion to the global market. The retail sector employs more than 4 million people, including women. But this growth has not translated into jobs for educated youngsters.

The protests began last month following a High Court order to restore 30 per cent job quotas for descendants of freedom fighters. This created fear among the general population, which is largely unemployed. Sheikh Hasina's refusal to meet the students' demands, citing court proceedings, escalated the crisis.

One of Sheikh Hasina's biggest mistakes was her comment calling those opposing job quotas as 'Razakars' (an offensive term in Bangladesh) or those who collaborated with the Pakistani Army during Bangladesh's 1971 War of Independence. It was the trigger for thousands of students who came together to protest.

The opposition had always accused Hasina, who won three consecutive elections, of thwarting free and fair polls. There was also a prevailing perception that 'growth' was only helping those close to Hasina's Awami League.

There were open discussions on social media charging top officials, both serving and retired, of corruption. In fact, Hasina had acknowledged corruption as a problem and had promised to take action.

Sources close to Hasina blame China and Pakistan for the unrest, arguing that these countries wanted to end the moderate Islamic rule of Hasina, where they had little say, in favour of the parties promoting radical Islam - like the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

India watchful

India has been closely monitoring the developments in Bangladesh and is keeping a close watch. As Sheikh Hasina's flight landed in Hindon near Delhi, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar held consultations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Indian government has issued a "high alert" along its border with Bangladesh, according to reports. India had already cautioned its citizens to avoid travelling to Bangladesh until further notice.

India has always considered Sheikh Hasina a close friend in a neighbourhood where its army confronts both Pakistan and China along hostile, disputed borders. India shares a long border with Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is also crucial to the security of India's remote northeastern states, where insurgent groups used to be active. They often took sanctuary in Bangladesh, which shares a porous border with some of these states. On Hasina's watch, India's northeastern border was relatively calm because she had not allowed Bangladesh to be used by insurgent groups.

"Bangladesh is our close and strategic partner. Hence, instability in the neighbourhood has obvious diaspora and security imperatives which might already be felt. The influx of refugees escaping violence can become a problem. External powers inimical to India's interests may gain ground, which will have to be factored in," says Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer.

Trade between India and Bangladesh will also be significantly impacted, with business activities at Petrapole, the largest land port in India and South Asia, nearly coming to a halt.

Sheikh Hasina had ably balanced ties with both India and China. During her tenure, in all its developmental partnership with China, Bangladesh had been heedful about India's interests.

Going forward

India had acted like a mediator between Bangladesh and the Western countries, who were unhappy with the elections held in Bangladesh in January, in which Hasina was re-elected for a fourth term. India had told the US that sidelining Bangladesh would mean giving China a chance to participate in Bangladesh's development and thereby a stake in its matters, which was neither good for India nor the US.

With the prevailing chaos and changed situation, India is bound to be apprehensive about its relationship with Bangladesh.

"Whichever government comes to power in Dhaka, it will want to engage with India. Both the countries know that engaging with each other is going to give benefits to the people and that's what all governments are there for. There may be a certain amount of uncertainty in the beginning, but the governments of both the countries will engage," says Sreeradha Datta, professor of international affairs, Jindal Global University.

Professor Datta continues, "Some aspects may not be as strong as it was earlier and some aspects may in fact improve also".

While issues like river water management still need to be sorted out, India-Bangladesh has seen wide-ranging collaboration on many other issues in the last 10 years. A substantive bilateral partnership in trade and commerce, people-to-people ties, defence, and infrastructure were the hallmarks in the golden era of Delhi-Dhaka ties.

Talking about the road ahead, Mr Trigunayat says, "It will depend on the ensuing power structure going forward and the role the army plays in the democratic polity which is usually preferred by people. India has a policy that is pro-Bangladesh and pro our neighbour."

As India prepares to tackle the sudden volatility and turmoil in its neighbourhood, it will also be working towards a friendly government in Dhaka. At the same time, India will keep a lookout for other nations meddling in the crisis.