This Article is From Nov 28, 2018

The Countdown Highlights: Will Shivraj Chouhan Win Fourth Term In Madhya Pradesh?

The Congress is expecting anti-incumbency against Shivraj Chouhan, the state Chief Minister for three terms, to do the trick for them.

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Bhopal :

A high voter turnout was recorded today in Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress is trying to defeat the BJP that has won the assembly elections three times in a row. From 72.7 per cent in 2013, the provisional figure for Madhya Pradesh was 74.6 per cent, the Election Commission said. The Congress, which is contesting polls in Madhya Pradesh for the first time under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, is expecting anti-incumbency against Shivraj Chouhan, the state Chief Minister for three terms, to do the trick for them. Mr Chouhan, however, is of the view that his party will win riding on his performance as chief minister for the last 15 years. In this edition of The Countdown, NDTV's Dr Prannoy Roy and other poll experts take a look at whether the BJP will be able to hold on to the state. In the programme, Dr Roy speaks to the three big leaders of the Congress in the state - Jyotiraditya Schindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh.

Here are the live updates of Dr Prannoy Roy's analysis:

Nov 28, 2018 22:38 (IST)
That's all for today. For more election news and updates, tune in to NDTV.
Nov 28, 2018 22:35 (IST)
Factors that are working for and against the BJP and the Congress in Madhya Pradesh - from by-poll results, farmer issues, anti-incumbency to freebies and more.
Nov 28, 2018 22:33 (IST)
Bhil and Gond: Data shows the two dominant ethnic tribes have followed a very different voting pattern in the state.
Nov 28, 2018 22:31 (IST)
I don't see a swing towards the Congress. I see a swing away from the BJP. Whether that will be enough to get the Congress a win, is not certain yet, says poll expert Shekhar Gupta
Nov 28, 2018 22:23 (IST)
In 2013 Madhya Pradesh elections, the BJP won by a huge margin of 9 per cent and the Congress will need a massive 5 per cent swing to cross the halfway mark.

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Nov 28, 2018 22:22 (IST)
Why are farmers unhappy in Madhya Pradesh? Prannoy Roy and team visit a bank
Nov 28, 2018 22:18 (IST)
Here is the interview of Congress leader Kamal Nath.
Nov 28, 2018 22:17 (IST)
Will BJP hold on to Madhya Pradesh after three terms? Here's what opinion polls suggest?
Nov 28, 2018 22:13 (IST)
Question: But this time you are facing a fairly united Congress party, is that right? More united from before.
Prabhat Jha: Where is the unity? They unite when Rahul Gandhi comes here. The rest of the time they are like an orange. One unit from outside, but many pieces on the inside. The Congress has no workers on the ground. They have 40-50 individual leaders who think they can win an election by themselves. At the booth level, on the ground, they have  nobody. Because they have become an election party. When the elections come, so does Rahul Gandhi. And so does Kamal Nath. Why don't you ask him how many districts he has visited? He has been here for six months. There are 51 districts. Has he been to even 20 or 25? Has Jyotiraditya Scindia been? Where are the leaders? Digvijaya Singh is having to admit that if I start campaigning, I will cut into the party's votes. So how will these leaders get them votes? This is why we are not saying anything. We are campaigning as strongly as we did in 2003. We trust the people. We have brought the light of development, not the light of Diwali, into 5 crore 50 lakh homes. 1 crore families are beneficiaries in every way.
Nov 28, 2018 22:11 (IST)
Question: Thank you very much for joining us. In this elections, you've been in power for 15 years. Are you worried about fourth term meaning anti-incumbency? 15 years is quite difficult to win again.

Prabhat Jha: As a journalist, I heard the word anti-incumbency at the time Prakash Chandra Sethi was the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. It is a word used only during the elections. In comparison, in 15 years here, our work has been pro-poor. We used to be called the party of baniyas & brahmins and now we are called the party of the poor. So we proudly say the BJP is the only pro-poor party and we are working for the poor. Middle class families, lower class families, they all are with us.
Nov 28, 2018 22:09 (IST)
Will Madhya Pradesh vote for the party they voted for in the last assembly elections? Do voters want a change of guard? Here's what our interviews with 190 people show.



Nov 28, 2018 22:08 (IST)
To bring you this special analyses from the ground, here are the places Prannoy Roy and team visited across Madhya Pradesh.

Nov 28, 2018 22:06 (IST)
Question: Do you regret not tying up with the BSP?

Digvijaya Singh: No we wanted to tie up with them but they jumped the gun. They declared 22 seats without our understanding. So that became difficult.

Question: But is it a regret that you didn't?

Digvijaya Singh: Not really regret. But I can tell you the two positives. There is a huge groundswell against the BJP. So it's not the parties, the people are fighting against the BJP now. And that has become evident in the last two three days.
Nov 28, 2018 22:05 (IST)
Question: So transportation meaning getting...

Digvijaya Singh: The money to...

Question:: ....the voters to the booth, that sort of thing or getting their candidates out

Digvijaya Singh: Handing over the money to the candidates

Question: Oh I see, transporting the money, okay.

Digvijaya Singh: Number two, they have had some links with the Gondwana Gantantra Parishad. Gondwana Gantantra Parishad has been taking money from the BJP and putting up candidates. I don't know about BSP but BSP list also and Samajwadi list also is something that brings in a doubt.

Nov 28, 2018 22:04 (IST)
Question: I've heard that, but you never know if it's fake or true

Digvijaya Singh: No, that can be checked. But  I have checked myself and voice sort of matches with Mukesh Tandon and Rakesh Kumar Singh. So huge money they would be pumping and they have planned it in a way that transportation is not a problem now, number one.
Nov 28, 2018 22:03 (IST)
Question: So now elections are about to happen. What are your two worries and two factors that you're pleased with? I know you'll start with the pleased with.

Digvijaya Singh: No, I'll start with worries. Worries that they are throwing a lot of money in the last three days. And they've got a huge amount of money.
Nov 28, 2018 22:01 (IST)
Question: Issues?

Digvijaya Singh: Issues, of course, Congress could not really put up a real challenge as an opposition party for 5 years.

Question: Why is that?

Digvijaya Singh: Probably, I would say, people were more engaged in their own areas.

Question: So it was a divided party. Is it still slightly divided?

Digvijaya Singh: I can assure you that I have never seen Congress party so united as this time.
Nov 28, 2018 22:00 (IST)
Question: The question also is why for the last 15 years the Congress hasn't been able to make a comeback? BJP won last time by 9%, which is a big margin. What are the issues that have caused this huge gap in the Congress ruling this state?

Digvijaya Singh: Well, first of all, there were more than 60 lakh bogus voters which we don't look at. This time we have done a very close scrutiny of the voters list and we've been able to identify voters who have figured at different polling booths in different assembly.
Nov 28, 2018 21:56 (IST)
Question: Thank you very much for joining us, I know that for once in your life you are working very hard. Tell me, we're trying to understand, for 15 years the Congress has been out. Why, what happened?

Digvijaya Singh: First of all, let me strongly object 'for first time in my life I'm working hard'. I worked hard all my life. Anyway, see I kept out of the campaign because I was asked to, sort of, not to interfere too much in Madhya Pradesh. So I kept out of the two campaigns. Whatever I could, whatever I was asked to do, I did it. This time I have spent one year, more than one year now, in Madhya Pradesh. First, walking 3100 kms. along the river Narmada, covering about 104 constituencies. Then we started this coordination committee meetings in every district where I covered 194, including so many senior leaders who are not fighting assembly elections. And we covered 194 constituencies and we met more than 200,000 workers one to one to get a feel of what is happening on the ground.
Nov 28, 2018 21:36 (IST)
Question: Still, what's that one worry that you have on your mind?

Jyotiraditya Scindia: I think, this time we have knitted together the campaign really well. Our feet are  on the ground, our  foot soldiers are on the ground, our workers are in  great gusto and great form. I think, the people of Madhya Pradesh will give you a very clear verdict in terms of... whether we can ensure that we take our voters to the polling booths and ensure that they cast their franchise. Conversion factor...from sentiment to actual polling is crucial in an election.



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