Truth vs Hype: Amethi - bastion under threat?

Amethi: As Rahul Gandhi takes centrestage for the Congress's 2014 campaign, in Amethi, in the bastion of Nehru Gandhi family, India's premier political dynasty faces new threats - from within and outside.

A small college ground in Amethi, is the setting for a Kumar Vishwas public meeting. Venues, at this stage, need to be small as the crowds are thin and the Aam Aadmi Party is a very recent phenomenon. This doesn't seem to deter Vishwas, whose transition from 'hasya kavi', to politician seems complete.

The crowds cheer as he sings lines from his famous poems, weaving into them political messages.

But the arrival into Amethi hasn't been without controversy. There is a suspicion that the black flags and egg-throwing that greeted his entry, was a reflection of Muslim anger, mainly for mocking both the tradition of Muharram and Imam Hussain, the prophet of the Shia Muslims, during a performance in 2005.

He has already apologised for it, and does so again to us, saying he didn't meant to offend Muslim sentiment.

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But Amethi has a large Muslim population, evident from the crowded streets on the day we visit, a celebration of Eid ul Nabi, the birth of the Prophet. And so for his defense, Vishwas has brought along an obligatory Muslim friend, who claims Vishwas has always been respectful of Islam.

If this all seems like he is trying too hard, it is because Vishwas' past is throwing up more evidence of soft Hindutva, like a 2009 event, where he lavished praise on the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi.

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Vishwas remained largely unapologetic about it, claiming that it was a poetry function, where he had no choice.

His party at least, seems to be taking note of Vishwas' unsavoury past. Lalita Ramdas, who convenes the AAP's committee on gender justice says that they have "informed the central leadership of AAP regarding his comments. I think there has been some action taken internally asking him to desist from this."

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But if anything, Vishwas' politically incorrect image plays into his pitch of a local boy, speaking in local, earthy dialect, versus an absentee prince.

Elect the 'naukar' (servant), he says, not the prince, and I will serve Amethi much better.

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Of course, Vishwas is not quite the pauper, with enough evidence to suggest he is fond of the high life. Nor is he from Amethi. He was born in Ghaziabad and lives in Delhi.

But Vishwas claims he is planning to shift to Amethi, and will live here even if he loses.

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But the sense of uncertainty surrounding Vishwas' commitment to Amethi is reinforced during a visit to the local AAP office, in a back lane in Amethi.

Here volunteers tell us that it is not at all certain that Vishwas will be given the ticket for the Amethi seat. They say it will be decided by consensus.

This might be because, for all the bluster, Vishwas sense that the challenges are immense.

Amethi has 14 lakh voters, a majority of whom are scattered across the sprawling countryside. Barring only a few occasions, it has been held by the Nehru-Gandhi family, or their loyalists, since 1980. Rahul Gandhi's own margin of victory has increased, from about three lakh votes in 2004, to 3.7 lakh votes in 2009.

Regardless, the AAP is trying to painstakingly replicate its Delhi model. They have started enrolling volunteers who will go door to door. They claim 8000 have already enrolled.

While there could be many legitimate doubts about the success of AAP's gambit in Uttar Pradesh, and the man they have chosen to head it, it is also true that Amethi, and indeed the neighbouring heartland of the Nehru Gandhi bastion, is not as impregnable as it was once. In the 2012 assembly elections, the party won only two out of the 15 assembly seats in the Amethi - Rae Bareli-Sultanpur belt.

The day after that result, in 2012 we were in Amethi, to find a party deeply divided: factions of the Congress loyal to Amita Singh, who fought, and lost the Amethi seat, blaming Kishori Lal Sharma, Rahul Gandhi's election agent for her defeat.

Those loyal to Sharma hit back, claiming Amita and her husband Sanjay, scion of the Amethi royal family, were cut off from ground reality.

Today, Sharma has been shifted to Rae Bareli, to look after Sonia Gandhi's turf.

In his place, as Rahul Gandhi's election agent is Chandrakant Dubey, who claims the infighting is a thing of the past.

But rumours persist that Sanjay Singh, who has a troubled history with the Congress, may fight Amethi on a rival ticket. Unlike Vishwas, Sanjay Singh poses a more formidable threat. In 1998, he won Amethi on a BJP ticket, the only time the seat left Congress' hands. And while he lost to Sonia Gandhi in 1999, he still polled over a lakh votes.

District Congress leaders play this down, claiming there is no such possibility. Singh himself was not available for comment.

In the end, for all infighting, and the threat of a new contender, the Congress legacy runs deep in Amethi.

In words that seem prescient, even the AAP's own supporters we met at the Kumar Vishwas Rally outline the most probable outcome of the battle for Amethi. They said that even though Rahul Gandhi will win the election, his margin will come down and at least he will get a reality check.