New Delhi: The UPA is clearly emerging as the leading alliance and is likely to get 216 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which are expected to produce a highly fractured verdict. The BJP-led NDA will get about 39 seats less, according to forecasts from the NDTV Exit Poll.
The Congress on its own looks set to surpass the 160 mark, with the BJP trailing at around 130, and the Third Front is expected to breach the 100 mark. But for the Left, things are not looking so rosy. The bloc will suffer setbacks in both Kerala and West Bengal, dropping below 35 seats in the 545-seat Parliament.
These are forecasts for all states from the exit poll conducted by NDTV in General Elections 2009. The fieldwork was done by GfK-Mode and 71,500 people were surveyed across India.
The forecasts were analysed by Dr Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala, accompanied by a panel of experts, over Wednesday and Thursday as a run-up to Saturday's counting of votes.
The UPA's numbers are expected from states like Andhra Pradesh where the Congress will retain dominance, West Bengal and Kerala, where it will gain handsomely at the cost of the Left, and Punjab, where Rahul Gandhi's experiments with youth over experience may well see great results.
The Congress-led ruling alliance will also gain in Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Orissa. Overall, the alliance is set to see a gain of 36 seats over its 2004 tally.
The NDA is unlikely to add or lose significantly.
Despite the Left spiral down, the Third Front will be only around three seats less than in 2004, helped no doubt by the tally of new partners like the BJD, BSP and AIADMK, parties which, however, are likely to fall short of their own expectations.
Losing spectacularly this time is the new Lalu-Paswan-Mulayam Fourth Front, likely to be down a huge 34 seats from their combined tally of 2004. The Nitish Kumar wave in Bihar is putting paid to the Lalu-Paswan aspirations in Bihar, while Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party may lose as many as 12 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
STATEWISE DETAILS
Uttar Pradesh:
In Uttar Pradesh, BSP doesn't appear to be doing too well. The scenario is not what Mayawati had expected, although the Third Front adds nine seats to its kitty, the total being 28. The BJP is faring well, with the NDA most likely to keep the figure intact at 14. The UPA gains four more, but the SP seems to be doing badly, losing as many as 12 of the 35 seats it won last time.
Maharashtra:
The total number of seats were 48. The NCP has done well, enabling the UPA to pocket seven more seats this time. The UPA is ahead with 10 more seats while NDA has lost six seats from its 2004 count of 25.
Rajasthan:
The 25 seats look evenly distributed between UPA and NDA. The BJP seems set to suffer setbacks with the NDA coming down to 12 from 21 and the UPA bagging thrice the number of seats it had won in 2004.
Punjab:
Of the 13 seats, the NDA has lost heavily, although the UPA has not gained much. The NDA has lost eight seats and the UPA has gained an equal number of seats.
Haryana:
The NDA has gained two seats whereas the UPA has suffered a loss of two seats.
Delhi:
There's no change in the Delhi picture, with all the seven seats going to the UPA and NDA. Both the alliances have retained their share - six and one respectively.
Andhra Pradesh:
Of the 42 seats, the Congress-led UPA seems set to reaffirm its dominance and repeat its 2004 performance of grabbing a winning 29 seats. The Third Front, which includes the TDP, is projected to gain three seats taking its tally to 10, and the NDA may lose three seats down to two from five in 2004.
Bihar:
The NDA is set to sweep Bihar, winning 33 of the 40 seats. That is up a whopping 22 seats from its 2004 tally of 11. The UPA loses two of its three seats and the rest of the loss is borne by the new Lalu-Paswan Fourth Front combine which loses 21 seats to come crashing down to a mere five seats. A clear thumbs up for Nitish Kumar and his chief ministership.
Gujarat:
From East to West. Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi did not just dramatically share stage to underscore BJP-JD(U) affection. They also share healthy wins in their respective states. In Gujarat, Narendra Modi is set to gain from his thin margin of 2004, and may add four seats to take his tally to 18. The UPA consequently would slide down four to eight.
Orissa:
The BJP-BJD split in Orissa is likely to help the Congress slip through to get just ahead of the Third Front, which includes Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal. The UPA looks likely to get 10 seats up seven from its 2004 tally, to nine for the Third Front, down two seats. The NDA loses five seats from its 2004 tally and comes down to two.
Karnataka:
The NDA looks set to do surprisingly well in Karnataka thanks to uneven vote distribution. So, even though the Congress-led UPA may have the larger vote share, the BJP-led NDA is set to win most seats, 17 out of the 28. That is down one from its previous tally. A gain for the UPA, which takes up its tally to nine from eight last year.
Tamil Nadu:
In this state, where the Tamils in Sri Lanka issue has been hot, the alliances led by the two regional giants AIADMK and the DMK are set for a photo-finish. The DMK-led UPA is likely to see a significant six-seat loss down to 20 seats. And the AIADMK may gain five to take its tally to 18.
543 seats: The UPA looks set to bag 216 seats, adding 36 new ones to its 2004 tally. The NDA tries to catch up with 177 seats, not adding anything this time. The Third Front is likely to lose three seats while managing only 105. For the Fourth Front it could be a huge loss, with as many as 34 seats slipping from its grip.
Alliances:
NDA: BJP, JD(U), SS, AFP, AKALI, RLD, INLD, NPF
UPA: CONG, NCP, DMK, TC, JMM, JKNC, RPI
Third Front: LEFT, BSP, AIADMK, TDP, BJD, TRS, PMK, JDS, MDMK
Fourth Front: RJD, LJP, SP, PRP