New Delhi:
Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav's shocker of naming Dr Manmohan Singh among its candidates for President has the led the battle for Raisina Hill straight to 7 Race Course Road - the Prime Minister's residence. In what is an unprecedented first in Indian politics, the name of a sitting Prime Minister was proposed for President throwing the field wide open to speculation of a mid-course change of the Prime Minister and Dr Manmohan Singh's waning authority.
Ahead of today's meeting of UPA allies, Congress sources say the party has called all partners to warn that the Mamata-Mulayam combine is trying to topple the government. Allies were reportedly told that the Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool want fresh elections, and that is why it was imperative that the UPA have its own candidate in Rashtrapati Bhavan. This, even though Ms Banerjee insisted she does not want early polls and wants to remain a part of the UPA. "We want to be in the UPA. If they don't want us in the government, that choice is with the Congress," she said last evening before she met Mr Yadav for a third time in 48 hours.
It took the Congress party an entire day to come out in support of the Prime Minister. "He will remain our PM till 2014. We cannot afford to spare Manmohan Singh as PM, said party spokesperson Janardhan Diwivedi this afternoon. "We are always prepared for elections," said Congress minister Ambika Soni, "but remember we have the mandate for five years. Elections are expensive for the country."
With Mamata's minister, Mukul Roy, skipping the cabinet meet and her not attending the UPA meet today, many within the Congress are seeing this Mamata-Mulayam alliance as one between two people who would benefit from early elections. Ms Banerjee and Mr Yadav would stand to benefit from mid-term elections because they delivered stellar performances in recent elections in their state, and would like to leverage voter sentiment before their honeymoon period expires. The betrayal from Mulayam Singh Yadav particularly bitter, just days after the Congress didn't field a candidate against his daughter-in-law Dimple, who was elected unopposed from Kannauj in UP. Observers say the Congress strategy now seems to be to try and drive a wedge between Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav.
An indication of just how serious the crisis is comes from the fact that all Congress Chief Ministers have been called to Delhi. This amid speculation that a section within the party also want a change in leadership, even after Sonia Gandhi expressed faith in Manmohan Singh recently at a Congress leadership meet.
Both the Trinamool and the Samajwadi Party are critical to the government's survival. Here are how the numbers add up in the Lok Sabha - the UPA including the Trinamool make up 274 MPs. The Samajwadi Party has 22 seats in the Lok Sabha, with which it offers outside support. Without the Trinamool's 20 MPs, and the Samjwadi Party out of the equation, the government will be reduced to a minority of 255, and forced to look for outside support elsewhere. The ruling party will carry its math to the UPA meeting today, where it is expected to name its candidate for President.
However, what's clear now is that the election for President of India will test the authority of the Prime Minister; the leadership of Sonia Gandhi; the premise that the general elections will take place in 2014; and undoubtedly the patience of Pranab Mukherjee, who is a contender for his party's nomination. The Congress can take solace from the fact that UPA members like the DMK and Sharad Pawar have said they will support whoever Mrs Gandhi picks, and that most allies do not want an early election.