UP's Missing Voters Could Give The BJP An Advantage

There has been a remarkably low turnout of male voters compared to women voters in the Eastern UP region in this election. The significance of this phenomenon and its possible impact on the outcome is rarely discussed.

In these elections (just like in 2017), the turnout of male voters in Eastern UP is almost 10% lower than women voters (see Figure 1), while in Central and Western UP, the turnout of male and female votes is approximately the same. 

Who Are These Missing Male Voters?

During our election field trip around Eastern UP, we spoke to hundreds of voters in villages and small towns - male and female - it appears that most of these missing voters are male migrant labourers working in cities in other states, far away from the villages of Eastern UP; they do not have the money or the time off to travel back home to vote. However, migrants within the state to the big cities of UP apparently do come back to vote. 

The larger numbers of migrants from Eastern UP than from other parts of the state is primarily because this is the poorest region of UP.

The Election Commission needs to address this issue of poorer migrants not being able to vote. Most migrants have valid Aadhar cards and other evidence that they are legitimate voters, but sadly they just cannot afford to return to their villages to vote. 

Which Party Benefits From These Millions Of Missing Male Voters?

There was a time not long ago when the BJP had much higher support amongst men voters than women. Our polls during the 2014 elections showed that the BJP had a 19% lead amongst male voters compared with a 9% lead amongst female voters (see Figure 2).

This would suggest that the missing male voters in East UP could harm the BJP's prospects in this election substantially.

However, this may have changed dramatically in 2022 - the BJP's vote amongst women may now have become higher than the support amongst men. The BJP has targeted female voters with welfare-measures specifically for women: perhaps the most successful was the distribution of gas cylinders and, more recently, free rations. 

Also, the BJP's greater popularity among men may have waned, especially amongst migrant workers, who suffered extreme hardship especially during the first phase of Covid. If this is indeed the case, the missing men voters of UP may benefit the BJP as long as women voters' turnout remains high - which it clearly is.