The return of El Nino could presage a weaker monsoon this year (File)
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will release its annual forecast for the monsoon season today.
The weather office's official forecast will provide more clarity on the weather pattern that India is likely to experience this monsoon.
Yesterday, Skymet, a private weather agency, had said that India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year.
The private forecaster also said that there are chances of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold.
Skymet also predicted Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra to witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.
The return of El Nino could presage a weaker monsoon this year, the news agency PTI quoted Skymet's Managing Director Jatin Singh as saying.
Skymet also noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could steer monsoon and negate the ill-effects of El Nino when sufficiently strong.
Currently, the IOD is neutral and is expected to turn moderately positive at the start of monsoon.
El Nino refers to warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America. It is associated with weakening of monsoon winds in India.
The IOD is defined by the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia. A positive IOD is considered good for the Indian monsoon.
Earlier this month, the weather department had said that several parts of country, barring parts of northwest and peninsular region, are expected to experience above-normal maximum temperatures from April to June.
India logged its hottest February in 2023 since record-keeping began in 1901, according to the IMD. However, above-normal rainfall due to seven western disturbances, including five strong ones, kept temperatures in check in March.